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Title: US Federal Reserve Chair Signals Rate Cuts in September
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Good evening.
US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell gave his strongest signal yet today that rate cuts will come in September in an address to the calendar’s premier central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.” He remarked on the cooler labor market and supply constraints, which have normalized, adding that his “confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path” back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.
The speech comes during a period of heightened anxiety among the US public and investors on Wall Street. “August, thus far, has been a month of overreaction,” Mike Zigmont, head of trading at Harvest Volatility Management, told the FT. Markets were sent into a tailspin following a weaker-than-expected jobs report two weeks ago, and several flagging consumer company results compounded the overall sense of malaise.
But Powell’s words today injected fresh confidence into markets. The S&P 500 was up 0.6 percent after the speech, closing in on July’s all-time high.
The value of the US dollar has fallen recently on the back of rate cut expectations, prompting investors to flock to gold and drive prices to record highs this week. Lower borrowing costs typically boost the attractiveness of the metal relative to assets such as bonds, partly because it has no yield and is considered a safe haven.
While optimism is prevailing in markets for now, November’s US presidential election could complicate the Fed’s trajectory.
Donald Trump’s proposed large-scale deportation of migrant workers would be stagflationary, driving up prices through labor shortages in certain sectors and imperiling production, writes Adam Posen. Kamala Harris’s proposal to give $25,000 to first-time homebuyers could also heat up the economy, other analysts have warned. Central bankers, as always, will have to be agile in responding to both.
This is the last issue of Disrupted Times, but we will be back in your inboxes with a new look and a new name after a short break. We will still be rounding up the latest and most important business and economics news, so look out for Newswrap from September 2.
Need to know: UK and Europe economy
Household gas and electricity bills in the UK will rise this winter after regulator Ofgem said it would raise the energy price cap by 10 percent following an increase in wholesale costs. This is the regulator’s first increase to the cap since January.
MP Jas Athwal, the new Labour MP for Ilford South, is the House of Commons’ biggest landlord, owning 18 rental properties, raising concerns over potential opposition within the party ahead of major plans to tackle rental reform.
Closely watched gauges of long-term inflation expectations in Europe have reached their lowest levels in almost two years, signaling that investors are optimistic that central banks can keep lowering interest rates without risking an increase in price pressures.
Need to know: Global economy
Grenada has triggered the world’s first government bond “hurricane clause”. The Caribbean island told investors in its $112mn bond this week that it will suspend $12mn in interest over the next year as it recovers from Hurricane Beryl.
The Bank of Japan’s governor Kazuo Ueda warned that global markets remained unstable, as he reaffirmed his commitment to raising interest rates should the country’s inflation and economic growth stay on track.
Argentina’s senate has voted 61-8 in favor of a new formula for calculating pensions, updating them to more fully account for triple-digit inflation, dealing a blow to President Javier Milei’s campaign to balance the country’s budget.
Need to know: business
Some of the world’s biggest private equity firms are looking at ways to take part in a deal for Japan’s Seven & i Holdings after a takeover approach for the convenience store group from Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard earlier this week.
Kioxia, a Japanese chipmaker, has applied to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in what brokers said was likely to be Japan’s biggest initial public offering this year. The company will seek to raise at least $500mn, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Harley-Davidson chief executive Jochen Zeitz has riled anti-DEI activists and bikers over the company’s diversity policies. Here’s more about the “anti-woke” commotion embattling the leader.
European retailer Lidl has found an unlikely new source of revenue: offering cyber security and IT services to corporate customers wary of big providers such as Amazon and Google.
Nestlé chief executive Mark Schneider is to step down following a period of underperformance at the world’s largest food manufacturer. He will be succeeded by Laurent Freixe, Nestlé’s veteran executive vice-president and head of its Latin America business.
Science round-up
The epic rivalry between 18th-century scientists Buffon and Linnaeus can teach us lots about disruption, exploitation, and scientific innovation today, John Thornhill writes.
Sub-Saharan countries could cut high rates of child mortality if the World Health Organization recommended expanding the use of azithromycin, a crucial antibiotic, beyond the earliest age group, according to new research.
UK pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca warned it could relocate its vaccine manufacturing site in Merseyside to Philadelphia amid a deadlock in negotiations with the Labour government over plans to cut state aid promised to the project.
Some good news
Reba, an 8-year-old dog in Florida, was back in an animal shelter after having been shuttled between seven owners. She moped around with sad eyes, patiently waiting for the perfect family, workers said. But everything changed on Wednesday when Edna and Edward rescued the dog, taking her home “to start a new chapter filled with love and belly rubs”.
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