Buyers failed to show interest this summer despite decreasing mortgage rates, leaving real estate agents feeling pessimistic about their business prospects, according to Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker.
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With mortgage rates declining, agents are hopeful for more seller clients returning to the market, but the lack of buyers remains a concern.
Agent sentiment towards future revenue pools hit a 10-month low in late August, driven by dwindling buyer pipelines over the past year and the challenge of attracting first-time buyers in the coming year.
Client Pipeline Tracker score in August: -10
- Previous score: -7 in July
- Recent peak: +7 in January
Chart by Daniel Houston
The Client Pipeline Tracker measures agent sentiment towards the pool of potential real estate buyers and sellers, powered by the Inman Intel Index monthly survey of real estate professionals.
Agent expectations worsened following the Aug. 17 deadline for changes related to the NAR settlement, compounded by market forces impacting the brokerage business.
Read the full breakdown of the latest Client Pipeline Tracker results in the report below.
Buyers beware
Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker reflects agents’ views on their buyer and seller pipelines over the past year and in the near future.
Interpretation of scores:
- A score of 0 indicates a neutral period with client pipelines remaining stable.
- A positive score signifies improving client pipelines or expected improvements in the next 12 months, with higher ratings indicating more confidence in positive trends.
- A negative score indicates worsening client pipeline conditions or expected deterioration in the coming year.
An extremely positive combined score is around +20, while an extremely negative score falls closer to -20.
Component scores for August and changes from the previous month:
CPT component scores
July → August
- Present buyer pipelines: -33 → -41
- Future buyer pipelines: +2 → -5
- Present seller pipelines: -18 → -18
- Future seller pipelines: +2 → +5
There was a noticeable decline in buyer pipeline conditions, both currently and expected in the future, contributing to a prevailing pessimistic trend since the NAR settlement announcement in March.
Despite this, agents reported increased optimism regarding their listing pipelines in August.
- 35 percent of agents anticipated heavier seller pipelines a year from now, up from 31 percent the previous month.
One factor influencing this shift could be recent economic indicators guiding the Federal Reserve towards potential rate cuts, easing the transition for homeowners to refinance at current rates.
However, agents remain preoccupied with other pressing concerns.
Trends overshadowed
Agent pessimism may stem from a combination of the Aug. 17 deadline and actual market conditions.
Major drops in future buyer pipeline scores were observed following significant events related to the NAR settlement, indicating a correlation between these developments and agent outlook.
Other factors impacting agent sentiment include persistently low existing-home sales and reluctance among buyers to pursue purchase loans despite falling mortgage rates.
Market forces are likely influencing agent assessment of current buyer pipelines and future prospects, contributing to a sense of uncertainty.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted between August 19-30, 2024, with over 620 responses received as of August 26. The data presented is preliminary and subject to revision.
The Inman reader community was extended an invitation to participate, with a rotating, randomized selection of members receiving prompts via email. Participants were asked a series of questions pertaining to their respective roles in the real estate industry, such as real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders, and proptech entrepreneurs. The insights gathered represent the perspectives of the engaged Inman community, which may not always align with the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted on a monthly basis.
For more information, please contact Daniel Houston.