Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Homebuilder inventory of started and completed homes is on the rise, but sales are sluggish.
New Home Sales by Stage of Construction, chart by Mish
New Homes for Sale by Stage of Construction
-
Total: 495,000. The highest since December 2007.
-
Started Plus Completed: 389,000. The most since May 2008.
-
Under Construction: 274,000
-
Completed: 115,000. The highest since August 2009.
-
Not Started: 106,000
Not started homes represent vacant land, while started and completed homes indicate speculative building.
New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Detail
New Home Sales vs Stage of Construction, chart by Mish
New home sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized totals. The stage of construction numbers are seasonally adjusted but not annualized.
New Homes for Sale as Percent of New Home Sales
New Home by Stage of Construction as percent of new home sales, chart by Mish
Elevated for Sale Numbers
A new chart has been added today.
Interestingly, during the Great Recession, there were more homes for sale than the annualized number of new home sales, including homes not started.
Not started homes signify a land commitment, while started and completed homes indicate increased speculation.
Unfortunately, the current data series only goes back to 1999, but the current numbers seem significantly elevated compared to available data.
This could potentially put pressure on prices unless demand improves.
Note: The above charts and commentary are related to new single-family homes. The following data includes all units under construction, including multifamily.
Housing Units Under Construction
Housing Units Under Construction Detail
Housing units under construction, data from Census Department, chart by Mish
The number of units under construction is decreasing rapidly, from 1.71 million to 1.41 million, a drop of 17.7 percent.
In the Great Recession, the number of completed units peaked at 1.42 million, so this is a notably high number.
However, the majority of these units are multifamily, which is a stark difference from the Great Recession.
What’s Happening?
We are constructing apartments for immigrants who are currently in the country (legally or illegally) and others who may not be able to enter due to border closures implemented by Trump.
Despite the increase in completed units, the rental prices have not been impacted, at least in terms of renewals. The question remains how long this can be sustained.
Loading…