Purchase apps
When looking at purchase apps data, it’s interesting to note that we are now seeing levels comparable to those in 2014, a time when “Happy” by Pharrell Williams was ruling the charts. This marks a significant shift from the double-digit year-over-year growth we had been experiencing for the past nine weeks.
While purchase apps data historically aligns closely with existing home sales, it’s important to see consistent double-digit growth over several months to truly indicate positive momentum. This growth should also be supported by weekly pending sales data for confirmation.
Despite mortgage rates not dropping below 6.64%, which has been a historical benchmark for better housing data, we are still seeing growth in purchase applications. Last week, we observed a 0.1% increase in purchase applications from the previous week, with a year-over-year growth rate of 16%.
Here is the weekly purchase application data for 2025 so far:
- 11 positive readings
- 9 negative readings
- 5 flat prints
- 22 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 9 straight weeks of double-digit, year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I predicted mortgage rates to fluctuate between 5.75% and 7.25%, with the 10-year yield ranging from 3.80% to 4.70%. Recent job reports have influenced market sentiment, with mortgage rates ending the week at 6.75% after hitting lows of 6.67%.
Mortgage spreads
While mortgage spreads have improved since their peak in 2023, they remain elevated. Recent market stability has contributed to better performance in spreads, with mortgage rates currently reflecting this trend.
New listings
Despite a temporary dip in new listing data, we anticipate a rebound soon. Seasonal trends may impact weekly data, but the overall trajectory remains positive.
Weekly pending home sales
Weekly pending sales data reflects the impact of holidays, with fluctuations observed in recent reports.
Total pending home sales
Total pending home sales data continues to show year-over-year growth, indicating a positive trend in the housing market.
Housing inventory
Weekly housing inventory data shows promising growth, indicating a positive trend in the housing market for 2025.
Price cut percentage
Price cut percentage data reflects market trends, with fluctuations observed during holiday weeks.
The week ahead: Tariffs back in play again?
Upcoming tariff announcements and market developments will be key factors to watch in the coming week, alongside important labor market indicators.
Stay tuned for updates on trade war headlines, tax bill discussions, and market movements as we navigate through the summer weeks.