The dynamics of Dogecoin’s exchange have shifted at a crucial moment, as recent on-chain data indicates a change in the short-term market structure. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) shared a Glassnode chart showing that Dogecoin’s net supply on centralized exchanges has turned positive, suggesting a potential rebound. The chart, titled “DOGE: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges,” tracks monthly exchange inflows and outflows in a histogram format, highlighting periods of net inflows (green bars) and net outflows (red bars).
From mid-2024 to late 2024, there was a cluster of strong green bars indicating significant net inflows, coinciding with a price rally from below $0.10 to a peak of $0.48. However, the structure changed in early to mid-2025, with a mix of positive and negative readings as the price fluctuated between $0.12 and $0.30. Towards late 2025, there was a sequence of red bars indicating net outflows, with the price trending lower. The latest data point shows a tall green bar crossing above the zero line, signaling a shift to positive net flows and a potential rebound.
Martinez also shared a chart showing the distribution of DOGE supply based on when it was last moved on-chain. The data indicates a significant support level at around $0.08, with a gap in support between $0.07 and $0.16. Martinez warns that support for Dogecoin disappears quickly below $0.16, with the next demand zone at $0.07. Another chart tracks the cost basis distribution of DOGE holders, revealing clusters around $0.08 and $0.20.
These data points, along with the reversal in exchange flows, suggest that Dogecoin’s market is at a critical juncture. Traders are closely monitoring the latest developments to determine the cryptocurrency’s next move. As of now, DOGE is trading at $0.158, holding above the 200-week EMA.