Insights from 2025 Data
As we reflect on the housing market data from 2025, it’s important to note that the holiday season and the beginning of a new year can impact the accuracy of the numbers. Despite this, here is a summary of the purchase application data for the year:
- 23 positive readings
- 20 negative readings
- 6 flat prints
- 46 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 33 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year
While the year-over-year data appears positive, it’s essential to consider that we are comparing to record-low levels from 2024. The growth in new listings in 2025 contributed to the increase in purchase application data, as many new sellers were potential mortgage buyers.
Factors Influencing Housing Demand
Historically, the best existing-home sales have occurred when there is positive week-to-week data, rather than just year-over-year growth. For example, in late 2022 and early 2023, positive week-to-week data led to a significant increase in home sales. Similarly, in 2024, positive week-to-week prints resulted in a surge in sales despite minimal year-over-year growth.
In 2025, as mortgage rates decreased below 6.64%, we observed more positive week-to-week data, indicating an improvement in the housing market. Lower mortgage rates typically lead to higher housing demand, as shown in the chart below:
When mortgage rates fell below 6.64%, the purchase application data reflected:
- 11 positive week-to-week prints
- 9 negative week-to-week prints
- 20 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
These trends resulted in a 9-month high in existing home sales, indicating a positive outlook for the market.
Looking Ahead to 2026
As we move into 2026, it will be crucial to monitor week-to-week data and year-over-year growth in the housing market. Positive week-to-week data, combined with year-over-year growth, is a strong indicator of future sales growth. With mortgage spreads at a 3-year low and nearing the normal range, the housing market is in a better position than in previous years.
Stay informed with the weekend Housing Market Tracker, which will provide updates on mortgage purchase application data and insights into the trends shaping the housing market in 2026.