Significant ONDO withdrawals are reshaping the supply dynamics without causing immediate reactions. A newly established wallet pulled out 41.87 million ONDO, valued at around $14.34 million, from Coinbase in multiple transactions.
These tokens did not flow back to centralized platforms, indicating an intention to hold rather than trade. The gradual withdrawals suggest a strategic approach rather than a hurried one.
Historically, similar patterns have been associated with long-term participants strategically positioning themselves. However, these withdrawals alone do not determine the market direction; they simply reduce the available supply.
As a result, sellers now need stronger conviction to exert sustained selling pressure. This shift subtly adjusts the market balance while maintaining price stability.
ONDO remains confined within a descending channel
ONDO’s price movement continues to follow a descending channel that has been guiding the trend since late 2025. The upper boundary has consistently rejected upward movements, reinforcing the existing overhead resistance.
On the other hand, the lower boundary continues to attract buyers, preventing deeper declines. Recent attempts at an upside were hindered around $0.38, confirming the presence of sellers.
However, downward movements struggled to break below $0.33, indicating demand at lower levels. This tightening range suggests consolidation rather than a breakdown.
Moreover, the slope of the channel has slightly flattened, indicating a slowdown in the downward momentum.
Nevertheless, the channel’s structure remains dominant. Unless the price convincingly challenges the upper boundary of the channel, rallies may be corrective rather than impulsive.
Source: TradingView
Momentum indicators indicate hesitation rather than exhaustion. The daily RSI continues to hover around 35, staying below the neutral territory.
Although the indicator has stopped forming lower lows despite multiple tests of support. This behavior often occurs in the later stages of corrective phases.
Recent short-term rebounds pushed the RSI towards 60, but sellers quickly limited the momentum. As a result, the RSI oscillates rather than trending.
Notably, the RSI has not stayed in oversold conditions below 30 for an extended period, indicating caution among sellers.
However, the momentum remains delicate. For a stronger recovery narrative, the RSI must reclaim the 45–50 zone.
Taker buyers continue to absorb selling pressure
Spot taker CVD indicates buyer dominance, especially on the 90-day view, where the cumulative delta remains positive. Buyers consistently lift bids instead of waiting for pullbacks.
This behavior contrasts with previous sell-driven phases. However, the price has not surged alongside this activity, suggesting absorption rather than chasing momentum.
Sellers are selling into demand, but their follow-through weakens over time. As absorption continues, the available supply gradually diminishes.
Consequently, downward movements lose momentum even without immediate confirmation of an upward move. Taker behavior signals intent, while the market structure dictates timing.
Source: CryptoQuant
Short liquidations surpass long positions as downside pressure diminishes
Liquidation data indicates that shorts have suffered more losses than longs during recent volatility.
At the time of analysis, total liquidations amounted to approximately $43,000, with short liquidations around $43.02K, compared to only $405 in long liquidations.
Binance alone recorded over $42K in short liquidations, significantly exceeding losses on the long side. This imbalance suggests that bearish positions had become overcrowded before the price stabilized.
As shorts unwind, forced buybacks help absorb selling pressure rather than accelerate declines.
However, the overall size of liquidations remains modest, indicating light leverage exposure. Hence, the market has cleared excess bearish positions without triggering a cascade effect.
Source: CoinGlass
Short-side liquidity accumulates above the current price
The ONDO exchange liquidation map reveals concentrated short exposure stacked above current levels, particularly in the $0.35 to $0.37 range.
This clustering creates vulnerability to the upside. Even a slight push into this range could prompt short-covering actions rapidly.
In contrast, liquidity on the downside appears thinner below $0.33, reducing the chances of sharp selloffs triggered by cascades.
This imbalance tilts the short-term risk against short sellers rather than buyers.
However, liquidity remains inactive until the price nears these levels. Nevertheless, the map clearly outlines where volatility could escalate once momentum picks up.
Source: CoinGlass
In conclusion, ONDO is currently in a phase of accumulation rather than weakness. Supply is gradually tightening, bearish leverage has unwound, and buyers are absorbing pressure.
However, the market structure continues to restrain expansion. If there is increased activity near resistance levels, upward movements could accelerate rapidly.
Otherwise, consolidation may persist as market participants position themselves, delaying a definitive resolution but reinforcing the eventual direction of the market.
Final Thoughts
- ONDO is displaying signs of discreet accumulation as significant withdrawals tighten the supply without disturbing price stability.
- Weakening downside momentum and continuous absorption of selling pressure suggest a shift towards positioning rather than distribution in the market.