Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop to $72K on February 3rd, prompting analysts and asset managers to acknowledge the presence of a bear market.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that the “crypto winter” began in January 2025, with demand from ETF and treasury firms propping up the market.
Hougan mentioned that without this demand, Bitcoin’s price would have plummeted by 60%, indicating a full-blown crypto winter.
“We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning. We are in a full-blown crypto winter.”
Hougan predicted that bear markets typically last 13 months, but he doubted that the current one would extend to next November.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market?
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, agreed with Hougan’s analysis but differed on the timeline. He suggested that the bear market started in November 2025 and might end in 2026.
“The Bitcoin bear market started in November 2025, as suggested by on-chain and market data, and the timing has implications for when it will end. My current expectation is Q3 2026.”
Source: X/Julio Moreno
BTC dropped below $100K and the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in November, indicating a bearish trend.
Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, also predicted a potential support level of $70K for Bitcoin.
“The price trend in crypto is negative, and capitulation has just started in ETFs. I would expect the bearish move to lead BTC to test $70k support.”
Assessing the Crypto Market Bottom
Experts are projecting a potential market reversal by mid to late 2026, with varying opinions on the extent of the correction.
On-chain data indicates a downward slope in the MVRV Z-Score, suggesting that the market bottom may not have been reached yet.
Source: Glassnode
Final Thoughts
- Bitwise CIO highlighted the presence of a crypto winter, with differing views on its duration.
- CryptoQuant projected the end of the winter in Q3 2026, while Nansen identified $70K as a potential support level.
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