Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending sales data offer a snapshot of the housing market on a week-to-week basis. External factors like holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as recent weather events, can impact results. Despite these challenges, we saw a slight increase in pending sales last week, indicating a positive trend. As we move forward, we expect the winter weather effects to diminish, leading to more stable housing data. The weekly pending sales data typically align with monthly sales data 30-60 days ahead.
If you’re curious about the recent existing home sales report that fell short of expectations, check out this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast for insights on the underlying reasons, which were more related to holiday effects than weather conditions.
Comparing weekly pending sales from the past two years:
- 2026: 59,469
- 2025: 60,316
Before the snowstorm impacted the data, all forward-looking indicators were showing positive year-over-year trends. This suggests that we are nearing the end of the weather-related disruptions. For instance, our total pending home sales data, which is less volatile, has consistently shown year-over-year growth this year.
Mortgage purchase application data
The recent snowstorm had a noticeable impact on mortgage purchase application data. While we have maintained a positive year-over-year trend in 2026, the week-to-week results dipped following the storm. Ideally, we aim for at least 12-14 weeks of consecutive positive week-to-week data. Prior to the storm, we had seen a strong start to the year in terms of mortgage applications.
Here’s a summary of the 2026 mortgage purchase application data so far:
- 2 positive week-over-week results
- 2 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 5 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In our 2026 forecast, we anticipated the following ranges for mortgage rates and the 10-year yield. Last week, we observed some movement in the 10-year yield, with fluctuations influenced by economic data and market sentiments. Despite a strong headline jobs report, the bond market remained cautious, leading to a decline in the yield. Mortgage rates also saw a decrease, aligning with the overall trend in bond yields.
According to Mortgage News Daily, rates closed lower at 6.04%, with weekend rate data from Polly showing a slight increase to 6.07%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads continue to be a positive factor in the housing market for 2026, contributing to reduced mortgage rate volatility. These spreads are currently close to normal levels, historically ranging from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week, spreads closed at 1.91%, highlighting the stability in mortgage pricing. If spreads were to match peak levels from 2023, mortgage rates could be significantly higher. However, with spreads returning to normal, mortgage rates are expected to remain lower for an extended period.
Weekly housing inventory data
Weekly housing inventory showed a slight increase from the previous week. As we approach the spring season, we anticipate a rise in inventory levels, which is typical for late February or early March. However, sustained inventory growth beyond March could pose challenges. Despite a cooling growth rate, inventory levels remain at multiyear highs, helping to stabilize pricing. Year-over-year growth in inventory has decreased from 33% to 8.24% in the latest data.
- Weekly inventory change (Feb. 6-Feb. 13): Inventory rose from 687,697 to 690,547
- Same week last year (Feb. 7-Feb. 14): Inventory rose from 632,325 to 637,984
New listings data
New listings data experienced a rebound last week, likely due to the fading impact of recent weather events. While still slightly negative year over year, this trend is expected to improve as we move past the weather-related disruptions. Ideally, new listings data should range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during peak periods, similar to trends from 2013-2019. In comparison, new listings during the housing bubble crash varied significantly, ranging from 250,000 to 400,000 per week.
Here’s a comparison of new listings data from the past two years:
- 2026: 54,324
- 2025: 56,558
Price-cut percentage
Price cuts are a common occurrence in the housing market, with around one-third of homes undergoing reductions before selling. As mortgage rates and inventory levels rise, the percentage of price cuts typically increases. However, with rates near multiyear lows, we are now seeing negative year-over-year trends in price-cut percentages. This shift is attributed to the uptick in demand and the slowdown in inventory growth. Last week, the price-cut percentage was nearly 1% lower than the previous year.
The week ahead: Housing data, Fed speeches, and inflation
This week, we can expect a series of housing reports, including pending home sales, new home sales, housing starts, and builders’ confidence data. Additionally, there will be more Federal Reserve speeches and inflation data to monitor. The focus will be on whether the 10-year yield tests previous lows and how it responds to recent fluctuations. With mortgage rates nearing forecasted levels, this week presents an interesting outlook for the bond market.