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Tuesday, March 31
Personal Finance

Mortgage Rates Today, Tuesday, March 31: Still Elevated

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Yesterday, mortgage rates reached their highest peak since September. Today is basically the same.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.44% APR, according to rates provided to BW by Zillow. This is one basis points lower than yesterday and exactly the same as a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Last summer, the Nerds were thrilled and amazed to see mortgage rates shrinking below 6.5%. It seemed like a monumental threshold for mortgage shoppers. Fast-forward to early 2026, and rates had fallen below 6%. You can imagine how excited the Nerds were to see mortgage rates that began with a five!

Sigh. That was only a few weeks ago, and now the best we can say is, at least it’s still below 6.5% … for now. If you’re shopping for a new mortgage or refinance and can afford today’s rates, lock it in.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

📉 When will mortgage rates drop?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Usually, the Nerds are focused on wonky stuff like economic data, because those reports offer hints to the Federal Reserve’s next moves and where mortgage rates may be headed. Lately though, we’ve spent more time looking at headlines, as the day-to-day events of the war in Iran have been rattling the markets and driving up mortgage rates.

Because of the region’s importance to global shipping and energy production, the conflict has ratcheted up inflation fears enough to push investors away from bonds. Usually boring, predictable bonds are a safe harbor in uncertain times. But inflation means bonds’ set interest payouts (commonly referred to as a bond’s yield) are worth less, so investors have been looking elsewhere. Lower demand drives bond prices down and yields higher. Mortgage rates move in tandem with bond yields, so yeah — rates have been going up.

In terms of predictable current events, this week we’re looking ahead to the March jobs report, which will be released on Friday. This is the first major data drop we’re getting that may reflect the impact of the war in Iran, so it’s an extra big deal. And it’s coming off a February report that was weaker than expected — the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month, compared to a projected gain of 60,000.

“If the March data released in a week tells a similar story, it will spell trouble,” said BW Senior Economist Elizabeth Renter. “The economy can only post losses like that for so long before we see the unemployment rate spike. But even if the data shows a more subtle decrease or zero job growth, it’s cause for concern.”

All of this put together means the Federal Reserve‘s next decision on interest rates could face significant pressure from both sides. Fed governors who prioritize supporting the job market could advocate for a rate cut, but lower rates could intensify inflation.

At the same time, central bankers who are more concerned with inflation might support raising rates, which could further depress a sluggish labor market. Right now, analysts largely believe that central bankers will hold the federal funds rate steady at their April 28-29 meeting, but as we’ve seen this month, a lot can change in four weeks.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.94% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use BW’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

BW’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Is it a good idea to lock in my mortgage rate?

If you are satisfied with the quote you have received, it may be wise to consider locking in your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. This feature allows you to take advantage of a lower rate if the market fluctuates during your lock-in period.

Rate locks provide protection against rate increases while your loan is being processed, and given the unpredictable nature of the market, this peace of mind can be invaluable.

🤓 Fun Fact: Mortgage rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you are happy with the terms you have been offered, it might be a good idea to commit.

🧐 Why does the rate I saw online differ from the quote I received?

The rate you see advertised is typically a sample rate meant for borrowers with excellent credit, making a substantial down payment, and willing to pay mortgage points. This may not align with every buyer’s specific circumstances.

In addition to external market factors beyond your control, the personalized quote you receive is influenced by factors such as:

Even individuals with similar credit scores may receive different rates based on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I submit an application now, can I secure the rate I saw today?

Possibly — but keep in mind that even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock them in. Lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market fluctuations.

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