Dow Jones futures open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. President Joe Biden reportedly mulled his re-election campaign while French parliamentary elections took a hard right.
The stock market rally gave some mixed signals last week. Still, the major indexes are showing tight action on a weekly basis, with the Nasdaq power trend intact. Meta Platforms, Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia were key movers. China EV makers report June sales on Monday.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Biden To Discuss Campaign Future
President Biden was set discuss the future of his re-election campaign with his wife and other family at Camp David on Sunday, NBC News reported Saturday, citing multiple sources. That comes after Thursday night’s presidential debate vs. Donald Trump, in which Biden gave a disastrous performance. That raised concerns about his fitness for office, especially as he seeks a second four-year term.
Top Democratic officials have publicly voiced their continued support, despite many privately having serious concerns.
Biden’s Odds Fall
According to PredictIt, Biden’s odds of receiving the Democratic nomination have slipped to 59% as of Sunday afternoon vs. 72% on Friday and 85% before the debate. Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination odds have jumped to 21% from 13% on Friday.
Biden’s odds of winning the presidency are at 32%, up from 25% Saturday evening but down vs. 36% on Friday and 48% on Thursday before the debate.
Donald Trump’s odds of winning haven’t risen by nearly as much as Biden’s chances have faded. PredictIt sees Trump with a 55% chance vs. 59% on Friday and only up from 53% before the debate.
Still, rising speculation of a second Trump presidency with a GOP-led Congress hit solar and hospital stocks Friday.
French Takes Right Turn
France’s far-right National Front party, led by Marine Le Pen, appears to have won a big victory in the first round of parliamentary voting Sunday. A left-wing alliance is set to finish second, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party in third.
The National Front could end up with a parliamentary majority after the final round of voting on July 7.
Macron called the snap election on June 9, triggering market disruption in France and Europe.
Stock Market Rally Last Week
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% in last week’s stock market trading after a solid start to the week. The S&P 500 index dipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.2% after both reversed from record highs Friday morning.
The small-cap Russell 2000 popped 1.3%, reclaiming its 50-day line.
Looking on a weekly chart, the Nasdaq hasn’t shown any real weakness, rising for the past four weeks and nine out of the last 10.
The Nasdaq is 5.9% above its 50-day, slightly extended even with recent sideways action A longer pause or mild pullback would let stocks set up and give more room for the next advance.
Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) broke out during the week, though they hit resistance Friday. Nvidia (NVDA) retreated but found its footing.
Software came on strong last week, with AppLovin (APP), Monday.com (MNDY) and ServiceNow (NOW) flashing buy signals.
China EV Sales
Investors will get June and second-quarter sales from China EV makers Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV) and Zeekr (ZK) early Monday and perhaps EV and battery giant BYD (BYDDF).
Tesla and Rivian (RIVN) should release figures early Tuesday. Most automakers will release Q2 U.S. sales on Tuesday as well.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 0.4% last week.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) jumped 2.4%, its fourth straight strong weekly advance. ServiceNow stock and AppLovin are IGV holdings. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) sank 1.6%, but came off lows somewhat. Nvidia stock is the dominant SMH holding.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 1.4% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) tumbled 3.5%, back toward the April lows. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.
Megacap Stocks
Nvidia stock fell 2.4% for the week to 123.54. But after tumbling 6.7% on Monday, capping a three-day sell-off, the AI chip leader rebounded and steadied above the 21-day moving average. NVDA stock could use a longer break, forging a new base and letting the 50-day line catch up.
Meta stock rose 1.9% to 504.22. Shares cleared a 514.01 cup-with-handle buy point on Thursday, but fell nearly 3% on Friday. However, it’s still around some early entries within the handle.
Amazon stock gained 2.2% to 193.25, moving past a 191.70 flat-base buy point. Shares fell 2.3% on Friday.
Tesla stock jumped 8.1% to 197.88, breaking out from a 191.08 handle buy point. The buy range extends to 200.63. TSLA stock hit resistance at the 40-week line on Friday, but did close higher.
Tesla’s big weekly gain came as several analysts slashed second-quarter delivery estimates ahead of the EV giant’s Tuesday news release.
What’s on the Horizon?
Looking at the current market trends, there are some interesting developments in the software stocks sector that investors should keep an eye on.
AppLovin stock saw a significant increase of 5.9% last week, reaching 83.22 and breaking through a tight trendline and a short-term high of 82.66. This presents an early entry opportunity, with the official flat-base buy point at 88.50, as per MarketSurge.
Monday.com stock also showed positive movement, jumping 7% to 240.76. It rebounded from the 50-day line within a short consolidation pattern, setting up for a potential buy opportunity. While the official buy point is 249, the stock cleared a trendline on Thursday and tested a short-term high of 239.54 on Friday.
ServiceNow stock experienced a rally of just over 5% to 787.19, breaking through a trendline. With shares up 23% from the May 31 low, the official buy point is 815.32. It would be ideal for NOW stock to form a handle pattern before making further moves.
Additionally, there are several software stocks showing upward momentum from the bottom, while others are trading within bases or extended. Investors looking to capitalize on this sector’s movement can consider using software ETFs like IGV.
Analyzing the Market Rally
The current stock market rally offers various opportunities for active investors to participate. Whether you are a frequent trader making multiple trades or a more conservative investor staying put, it’s essential to align your investment strategy with your goals and risk tolerance.
Stay alert to market and sector trends, particularly in the software industry. While financial and industrial sectors may have seen some pullback, there are actionable stocks in these areas that are worth monitoring.
Political events, such as the upcoming presidential race, can introduce additional uncertainty into the market. Keeping track of the latest developments and adjusting your investment approach accordingly is crucial.
For daily market insights and stock recommendations, make sure to follow reputable sources like The Big Picture. Leading stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta are currently highlighted on IBD Leaderboard and SwingTrader, offering potential opportunities for investors.