New listings data
The current seasonal peak period is here, but there is a noticeable decrease in extra selling compared to the previous year. Here is the new listings data for this week over the last three years:
- 2024 70,606
- 2023: 61,749
- 2022: 90,741
Recent pre-listing data decline indicates a potential challenge in reaching the minimum peak target of 80K in 2024. A comparison between 2023 and 2024 data against 2022 data shows significant differences, especially during the home sales crash in 2022.
Let’s take a look at the new listings data from several years before the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically for this week. The norm is between 80,000 and 100,000, with some weeks even hitting 110,000 as the seasonal peak:
- 2015 81,875
- 2016 80,293
- 2017 84,293
- 2018 98,972
- 2019 87,278
Next, let’s explore the data on stressed sellers, showcasing significant numbers that reflect a different housing market scenario. The trend of housing activity over the years can provide valuable insights.
- 2009 281,734
- 2010 345,146
- 2011 396,955
- 2012 318,041
Weekly housing inventory data
The current inventory status is approaching an A grade this year, with consistent performance in hitting target levels despite elevated mortgage rates. Maintaining positive inventory growth between 11,000 and 17,000 weekly is crucial, especially with rates above 7.25%. Last week saw a positive inventory growth of 11,638!
- Weekly inventory change (June 14-June 21): Inventory increased from 634,132 to 645,770
- The same week last year (June 16-June 23): Inventory rose from 460,668 to 466,534
- All-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- This week marks the inventory peak for 2024 at 645,770
- For comparison, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,184,616
Price-cut percentage
Price-cut percentages in the housing market fluctuate with changes in mortgage rates and demand. Recent data trends show a consistent year-over-year growth in price-cut percentages since March, signaling a healthier inventory level compared to 2023.
Analysis of price-cut percentages for the previous week over the past few years reveals:
- 2024: 38%
- 2023: 32%
- 2022: 31%
Pending sales
Real-time demand is reflected in the weekly pending contract data, showing a slightly higher demand this year due to more sellers turning into buyers. Monitoring mortgage rates and related data can provide insights into future demand trends.
Current pending contract data comparison year-over-year:
- 2024: 397,569
- 2023: 385,084
- 2022: 445,519
10-year yield and mortgage rates
Analysis of the recent 10-year yield and mortgage rate trends reveals fluctuations influenced by economic factors. Notable events like the PCE inflation data impact bond yields, leading to shifts in mortgage rates.
Additionally, monitoring mortgage spreads provides insights into the relationship between mortgage rates and bond yields, indicating improvements compared to previous years.
Purchase application data
Recent data shows a positive trend in purchase application data, indicating potential growth in demand. However, sustained positive trends over a longer period are essential to gauge real demand growth effectively.
Year-to-date comparison of purchase application data reflects fluctuations in demand, influenced by varying mortgage rate scenarios.
The week ahead: Powell, ISM, jobs week and fireworks!
Upcoming economic events, including jobs week, ISM manufacturing data, and speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, are expected to influence market dynamics. Monitoring these events can provide valuable insights into the future of the housing market and economy.