- ARB decreased by 19.42% in the last month.
- Arbitrum’s holder profitability dropped to 7%, reaching a record low.
Arbitrum [ARB] has been on a downward trend for the past three weeks, falling from $0.95 to $0.58, and currently stands at $0.63. This represents a 3.47% decline on a daily basis.
The recent market conditions have raised concerns within the crypto community about a potential crash as holders’ profitability continues to decrease.
Historic low in holder profitability
According to IntoTheBlock, Arbitrum has seen a significant drop in profitability for investors, with the majority of holders now operating at a loss.
At the current price level, only 7% of ARB holders are in profit, indicating that 89% of holders are experiencing losses, while only 4% are breaking even.
Source: IntoTheBlock
During this period, long-term holders have been exiting the market, with only 40% of ARB holders estimated to have held the altcoin for over a year.
When a large number of holders are experiencing losses, two scenarios are possible. The first is a ‘final flush,’ where another drop may occur before a reversal takes place.
The second scenario is a potential bottom signal, where major holders stop selling as weaker hands have already left the market, leading to a reversal in trend.
Future outlook for ARB
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Arbitrum is currently under strong downward pressure, with bears dominating the market.
Source: TradingView
This downward pressure is evident from ARB’s Advance Decline Ratio (ADR), which has fallen below 1.
Source: Santiment
Furthermore, Arbitrum’s active users and adoption rate have seen a sharp decline, with the NVT Ratio (with transaction volume) rising to 201 from a low of 29.46.
This indicates a decrease in transaction volume and active users relative to market capitalization.
Therefore, even at the current price level, there is a possibility of further decline to meet actual demand.
Source: Santiment
Additionally, Arbitrum’s MVRV Ratio has dropped sharply to -5.01. A negative MVRV Ratio suggests capitulation, with holders selling at a loss.
Read about Arbitrum’s [ARB] Price Prediction for 2025–2026
This indicates a market filled with fear and forced liquidations.
With bearish sentiment prevailing, ARB could potentially fall to $0.56. However, the negative MVRV Ratio offers hope for a potential reversal, with a chance for the altcoin to reclaim $0.74.
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