Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a crucial phase of its cycle, leading to discussions among analysts about whether the long-running bull run is approaching its peak. As volatility tightens and historical cycle data hints at a potentially explosive breakout, market experts are closely monitoring the next few weeks for signs that will reveal the market’s current position and future direction.
Bitcoin Bull Run Cycle Nears Endgame
Market analyst, ‘CRYPTOBIRD,’ has raised concerns that the Bitcoin bull run could be coming to an end within the next 30 days. In a thread on social media, he pointed out that the current cycle has reached 1,038 days since the November 2022 bottom, which is equivalent to 97.5% of a standard cycle. Historically, the final 2.5% of Bitcoin’s bull runs have seen the most significant price surges, often catching investors off guard.
Analyzing the cycle bottom-to-top chart, BTC’s current market structure closely resembles that of past cycles, where it saw major accelerations just before reaching its peak. The current trajectory shows Bitcoin consolidating after substantial gains, similar to the patterns seen in the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
From a technical perspective, BTC is trading within a narrow 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, indicating significant compression. However, the cryptocurrency has recently dipped below this range and is now hovering just above $109,600.
CRYPTOBIRD has highlighted key levels to watch, including the 200-week SMA at $53,111, serving as long-term macro support, the 50-week SMA near $99,000 as the bull market floor, and the SPX correlation (-0.19). Short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support at $111,296 still holding. The current compression in the market sets the stage for a potential breakout that could dictate the market’s direction for the rest of the year.
Additionally, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) sits at $114,916, indicating bearish periods. Bitcoin’s price is approaching the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and maintaining support above this level could keep bulls in control.
Halving Math Signals Final BTC Breakdown
Continuing his analysis, CRYPTOBIRD emphasized that Bitcoin is now 523 days post-halving, placing it within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days after each halving event. Previous major cycle tops have occurred within this timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a statistically significant period for its final move.
The current market setup is further accentuated by a volatility squeeze, with Average True Range (ATR) at its lowest reading of 2025 and 50-day volatility sitting at 2,800. Such compressed volatility often precedes a sharp breakout within a few weeks.
Institutional investors are adjusting their positions accordingly, as indicated by Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators, such as the Fear and Greed index at 44, point to increasing fear rather than euphoria. The RSI is neutral at 46, suggesting that momentum has cooled but remains stable.
Despite September’s historical reputation as Bitcoin’s weakest month, the cryptocurrency has defied expectations by gaining 4.4% month-to-date. This unexpected performance, coupled with October traditionally being a strong month, could pave the way for a bullish fourth quarter.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com