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While Bitcoin continues to hover above the $100,000 threshold, the driving forces behind this historic consolidation phase appear to be more complex than the surface-level narratives of institutional “FOMO” and ETF euphoria. According to multiple leading analysts, a silent rotation is underway—one that suggests long-term holders are offloading their positions while corporate treasuries and institutional buyers quietly absorb the flood.
OG Bitcoin Whales Are ‘Dumping’ On Wall Street
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, delivered a sobering breakdown via X on June 29, challenging the prevailing belief that Bitcoin’s price stagnation amid surging demand is anomalous. “People are wondering why BTC has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO,” he wrote. “Despite what X news might suggest, it’s because Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on Wall St since the ETF Launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.”
Edwards, known for blending on-chain metrics with macro frameworks, pointed to a visible dynamic shift that is now being captured in blockchain data. While older coins are being redistributed, a newer class of holders—primarily treasury-oriented entities—are stepping in aggressively. “We have clearly entered the heat of [the Treasury Company] trend today as many copy-cats have entered the market,” he said, referencing his earlier prediction on Bits and Bips that corporate adoption would eventually eclipse ETF inflows in relevance.
What makes this transition particularly remarkable is the data behind it. Edwards highlighted that 6-month-plus BTC holders—commonly associated with more strategic, non-speculative accumulation—have skyrocketed in the past two months. “The amount of BTC acquired in the last 2 months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years,” he said. “Incredible.”
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This cohort’s aggressive accumulation, he added, has historically preceded bullish squeezes. “Whenever aggressive spikes in 6M+ holders occur, price usually squeezes following these periods. Short-term bullish,” Edwards remarked. However, he tempered the optimism by cautioning that broader on-chain data still signals fragility. “If the 6M+ holders (Treasury Companies) can continue their relentless buying, that should be achievable,” he noted, signaling that the flywheel has momentum, but is not yet immune to systemic pressure.
Adding another layer to this developing narrative, Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, Co-founder and CSO at Ledn, offered an alternative theory.
“` He proposed that the apparent dichotomy between two streams – long-term holders selling and Treasury entities buying – could actually be “one and the same trade.” He suggested, “Long-term holders are selling their spot holdings to purchase ETFs/BTC Treasury Companies. Even though this may seem counterintuitive for us in the Bitcoin community.” Di Bartolomeo characterized this transition as a generational shift, noting that many early adopters may prefer traditional financial custody over self-sovereign wallets.
However, Edwards challenged this explanation, arguing that if the migration to ETFs was causing the reclassification of long-term holders, there would be a noticeable trend across various age groups. He stated, “I don’t believe that’s the case because we would have observed a similar increase over time in the 6-month and 1-year cohorts if it were true. Some funds are certainly moving into equities, but it’s common during this stage of the Halving cycle to see long-term holders selling for profit.”
The discrepancy between increasing demand and stagnant prices has also sparked comments from on-chain analyst TXMC, who cautioned that most people misunderstand what truly influences Bitcoin’s price. He emphasized the fragmented nature of Bitcoin’s market structure, with exchanges operating independently but loosely connected through cross-exchange market-making. TXMC highlighted that large market orders can have a significant impact depending on the exchange and time of execution.
TXMC further explained that while ETFs and institutional desks are accumulating substantial amounts of Bitcoin, much of this activity bypasses traditional order books through OTC desks. This method of trading does not have the same effect on prices. He remarked, “These desks find their own liquidity and only use order books to fill the gaps.”
These insights may help explain why significant inflows into ETFs have not led to a substantial increase in Bitcoin’s price. Edwards’ theory aligns with this perspective, suggesting that the ETF boom may be driving redistribution rather than generating new demand. TXMC added, “Don’t underestimate the number of large entities seeking exit liquidity.”
Despite the shifting composition of Bitcoin ownership groups, the true test lies ahead. Whether corporate treasuries and ETF managers can absorb the remaining Bitcoin holdings from early adopters remains uncertain. However, if Edwards is correct, the redistribution process may have already passed its critical phase.
“The momentum still has a long way to go,” concluded Edwards. And if history is any indicator, these periods of consolidation amidst redistribution often precede periods of increased volatility.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,044.
[Bitcoin price chart](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zAlPAtYb/)
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com