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According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long-term Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on unrealized gains similar to those seen during the October 2024 market dip. Despite Bitcoin’s surge above $107,000, these holders are showing an average profit of 220% on their long-term investments.
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Lower Profit Levels Than Previous Peaks
Using the MVRV ratio, which measures market value relative to the average cost paid by long-term holders, Darkfost observed that during the March 2024 peak at $74,500, the MVRV ratio reached 300%. In December 2024, at the peak of $108,000, it climbed to 350%. The current 220% gain indicates that many long-term holders entered the market at higher price levels earlier in the cycle.
Price Needs To Rise To Match Past Gains
With an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to reach $135,200 to restore the 300% profit level. To achieve the 357% mark again, prices would have to rise to approximately $154,400. These figures align with historical investor behavior, where selling often occurs when profits reach significant milestones.
📉 Unrealized profits of LTH continue to decline and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction.
The average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, currently stands at around 220%.
That may seem high for BTC, but when compared to previous… pic.twitter.com/NeTCmXZVTY
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 1, 2025
Historical Cycle Comparisons
Looking back, the unrealized profits for long-term holders during the December 2017 peak at $19,500 were at 4,000%. In the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin rose to $63,000 in April 2021, with the MVRV ratio reaching 1,230%. By November 2021, prices reached around $68,400, but unrealized gains had dropped to 340%.
Recent analysis suggests a potential cycle top at $135,000 in October 2024, with a revised target range of $120,000–$150,000 based on new data in May 2025. The peak is expected between August and September 2025, aligning with the price levels needed to reach previous highs.
Room For More Upside, But Watch The Risks
Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,750, showing stability over the last 24 hours. The lower profit margins indicate that fewer long-term holders are looking to sell, potentially paving the way for further price increases. However, factors like spot-market flows, ETF movements, and broader economic changes can lead to sudden reversals in the market.
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At present, the market appears to be in a balanced state without being overheated. If Bitcoin follows past patterns, there may still be room for growth before long-term holders start cashing in at levels seen in March or December 2024. Investors should consider both on-chain metrics and real-world signals to navigate the market effectively.
Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView