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According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long-term Bitcoin holders are currently experiencing unrealized gains similar to those seen during the October 2024 market dip. Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge above $107,000, long-term holders are showing an average profit of 220% on their investments. This figure may seem low compared to previous peaks, but it reflects the buying levels of long-term holders throughout the cycle.
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Comparing Profit Levels
Using the MVRV ratio, which measures market value relative to the average cost paid by long-term holders, Darkfost observed that in March 2024, when Bitcoin reached $74,500, the MVRV ratio was 300%. By December 2024, at the peak of $108,000, the ratio had increased to 350%. The current 220% gain indicates that many long-term holders entered the market at higher levels compared to earlier in the cycle.
Projected Price Levels
Based on an average cost of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to $135,200 to reach a 300% profit level. To achieve a 357% profit level, prices would need to reach around $154,400. These projections align with historical trends where investors tend to sell when profits reach significant milestones.
📉 Unrealized profits of LTH continue to decline and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction.
The average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, currently stands at around 220%.
That may seem high for BTC, but when compared to previous… pic.twitter.com/NeTCmXZVTY
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 1, 2025
Analyzing Historical Cycles
Reflecting on past cycles, in December 2017, at the $19,500 peak, long-term holders saw unrealized profits of 4,000%. During the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin surged to $63,000 in April 2021, with the MVRV ratio peaking at 1,230%. By November 2021, prices had reached around $68,400, but unrealized gains for long-term holders had decreased to 340%.
Recent analysis suggests a potential cycle top at $135,000 in October 2024, with a revised target range of $120,000–$150,000 based on new data in May 2025. The projected peak is expected between August and September 2025, aligning with the price levels needed to reach previous MVRV highs.
Assessing Market Trends
Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,750, showing stability over the past 24 hours. With lower profit margins, fewer long-term holders may be inclined to sell, potentially paving the way for further price increases. However, it’s essential to consider external factors such as spot-market flows, ETF activities, and broader economic changes that could trigger sudden market shifts.
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At present, the market does not appear to be overheated. If historical patterns hold true, Bitcoin may have room for further growth before long-term holders decide to capitalize on profits. Investors should monitor on-chain metrics alongside real-world indicators and remain prepared for any future developments.
Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView