Key Highlights
Bitcoin Performance Update
Bitcoin is currently experiencing its second-largest ETF outflows since its inception, potentially setting a new record.
Potential BTC Price Recovery
Given the current market conditions, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will be able to reverse its losses from November if it ends the month in the red.
Bitcoin’s price has dropped below the $100,000 mark and continues to trade below it as Bitcoin ETFs and quarterly returns show a downward trend.
While the overall cryptocurrency market has seen a slight uptick of less than 1%, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 17, indicating extreme fear levels.
It appears that the market is heading towards recording its worst month in terms of BTC ETF outflows and quarterly returns.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows — Record Highs?
According to data from SosoValue, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed the second-largest outflow in 2025, reaching $2.33 billion midway through the month.
If similar outflows continue in the coming weeks, November could see a new record in terms of ETF outflows.
February of this year recorded the highest ETF outflows, nearing $4 billion. However, with Bitcoin now trading at a discount after dropping below $100K, there is potential for a reversal in outflows.
Source: SosoValue
The outflows are a result of the overall weakness in the market, with Bitcoin’s price also reflecting a similar trend.
Leading the outflows in the past 24 hours were BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Fidelity, as per CoinGlass data.
BlackRock alone saw over 4.65K BTC in outflows, accounting for more than 94% of the total outflows for the day.
Quarterly Returns: Seeking Alignment
Bitcoin continues to struggle in terms of quarterly returns, mirroring a general market weakness also seen in Ethereum (ETH).
This year’s quarterly loss is the closest to the significant drop seen in the last quarter of 2018 when BTC lost over 42%. However, the current loss represents only about a third of that figure.
Other years like 2022 and 2019 saw losses of around 14.75% and 13.54%, respectively, according to CoinGlass data.
Source: CoinGlass
Ethereum is also seeing its worst returns since 2019, reflecting a lack of confidence among traders in the crypto market.
Historical data suggests that a red November is often followed by a similar December, making it challenging for BTC to reverse the current sentiment.
This pattern was observed in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, all of which experienced negative performance in the last two months of the year.
Potential BTC Price Recovery
Recent analysis indicates that BTC price has fallen below a crucial 15-month trendline support, underscoring the market’s weakness in Bitcoin and related products like ETFs.
A reclaim of the support level would be a bullish sign for BTC, while a failure to do so could lead to further losses. Key support levels are around $80K on the downside and $126K on the upside.
Source: Trader Tardigrade
Changing the current downtrend in price action, returns, and BTC ETF flows would require a shift in crypto market sentiment. If the current trend persists, November could witness record outflows.
Despite the prolonged decline in prices and significant discounts, there is still a possibility of a rebound in the near future.
sentence in a different way:
The cat is sleeping peacefully on the bed.
The cat is peacefully resting on the bed.