China’s second-quarter growth data misses expectations

Good morning. Today we’re covering:

But we start with underwhelming Chinese growth data released yesterday, just as the Communist party kicked off a key economic policy meeting.

China’s economy grew 4.7 per cent year on year in the second quarter, official data showed, missing forecasts and marking a slower rate of expansion compared with the previous three months.

GDP, which added 5.3 per cent in the first quarter on the year before, had been expected to rise 5.1 per cent in the second quarter based on economists polled by Reuters.

China’s economy has grappled with weak consumer demand and a prolonged property slowdown, and the latest figures would “add force to the rising clamour for stimulus measures” at the Communist party’s third plenum, said Cornell University economics professor Eswar Prasad.

The four-day meeting launched by the party’s Central Committee yesterday is expected to set the direction of Beijing’s economic policy.

Thomas Hale reports on the weaker data release — and what analysts are paying attention to at the third plenum.

Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Japan and the US publish their latest retail sales figures. South Korea reports June import and export price indices.
• Reports: The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook Update.
• Results: Rio Tinto’s second-quarter operations review is due and Morgan Stanley reports second-quarter earnings.

Five more top stories

1. Donald Trump has picked Senator JD Vance as his running mate. The junior US senator from Ohio once described Trump as an “idiot”, but has been among his most ardent supporters in recent years. The selection of Vance, a former US marine who grew up poor, could help the former president win votes across the crucial swing states of the US’s industrial Midwest.

• Trump case tossed out: A US judge has dismissed a criminal case over Trump’s handling of classified documents, in a major legal victory for the former president.
• Go deeper: The shock dismissal of the classified documents case underlined how the Supreme Court’s landmark immunity decision has become an unexpectedly broad gift for Trump.

2. New Zealand will increasingly disclose cases of Chinese espionage, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told the FT. Wellington wanted to increase vigilance across the business community of the security threat — mirroring a strategy adopted by the US, UK, Canada and Australia, he added.

3. Malaysia’s billionaire king is trying to resuscitate a huge real estate project he helped launch in his homeland, with its Chinese developer Country Garden having succumbed to the property crisis in mainland China. The $100bn Forest City development in Johor was billed as a “dream paradise” when the project was launched in 2014. But the vast complex appeared to be more of a ghost city during a recent visit by the FT.

4. The far-left faction of the alliance that won the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections suspended talks with its partners yesterday. The left’s efforts to capitalise on its victory were plunged into disarray after the groups failed to agree on a candidate for prime minister.

5. Investors are creating a “barbell effect” in fixed income markets by opting for low-cost exchange traded funds and alternative assets rather than traditional bond funds, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink said yesterday. Fink’s comments came as the world’s largest money manager announced a new high of $10.6tn in assets under management.

The Big Read

Across China, multiple indicators of social stress are flashing red as weakness in parts of the economy takes its toll. Official and unofficial data shows rises in everything from labour market stress and housing foreclosures to labour protests, suicides, crime and random violence. China’s surveillance state, strengthened under President Xi Jinping, has suppressed most unrest in recent decades, but at a crucial economic transition, the party is facing new challenges in terms of maintaining what it values most — social stability.

We’re also reading…

Chart of the day

Bitcoin surged yesterday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump as traders increased their bets on the former president winning November’s US presidential election. The Republican is seen as more pro-crypto than Joe Biden, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and voiced enthusiasm for US-based bitcoin mining.

Take a break from the news

In the world of classic-car collecting, women remain in the minority. But change is in the air: Hagerty, one of the world’s largest insurers of collector cars and speciality vehicles, released figures showing that the number of its female policyholders grew almost 30 per cent between 2010 and 2020. HTSI spoke to three women driving the change.

Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo and Gordon Smith