Purchase application data
2025 has brought some surprising developments in the purchase application data realm. Last week, we saw a remarkable 20% year-over-year growth and a 10% week-to-week growth. Despite the lack of attention this data is receiving, it’s worth noting that last week was one of the best in years. Here’s a breakdown of the weekly data for 2025:
- 11 positive readings
- 8 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
- 19 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
Weekly pending sales
Our weekly pending home sales offer insights into week-to-week trends, although external factors like holiday weekends can influence the data. Despite a slight softening last week, likely due to the holiday, we observed a rebound in sales, maintaining year-over-year growth with mortgage rates hovering around 7%.
Weekly pending sales for last week over the last two years:
- 2025: 72,039
- 2024: 68,916
Total pending sales
The latest data on total pending sales from Altos sheds light on current housing demand trends. Despite elevated rates in 2025, total pending home sales remain steady, slightly higher than the previous year. The end of the seasonal peak period has been marked, indicating a stable market.
Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 405,489
- 2024: 395,923
The housing market is resilient in the face of elevated mortgage rates and market fluctuations, showcasing a healthier inventory and sustained demand.
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In 2025, mortgage rates have fluctuated between 5.75% and 7.25%, while the 10-year yield has varied from 3.80% to 4.70%. Recent events have impacted these rates, with mortgage rates hovering around 6.89% despite market uncertainties.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have shown improvement since their peak in 2023, playing a crucial role in mitigating the impact of higher 10-year yields on mortgage rates. Historical data indicates that mortgage spreads typically range between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Weekly housing inventory data
The growth in housing inventory over the past two years has been a significant development in the housing market. The increase in inventory levels indicates a return to normalcy, setting a solid foundation for the future.
- Weekly inventory change (June 6-June 13): Inventory rose from 808,564 to 825,761
- The same week last year (June 7-June 14): Inventory rose from 611,543 to 620,622
New listings data
New listings data for last week over the past two years:
- 2025: 78,289
- 2024: 71,486
Price-cut percentage
Price reductions in the housing market indicate its dynamic nature, with adjustments made as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain elevated. Cautious growth forecasts for 2025 are reinforced by the rise in price reductions compared to last year.
The week ahead: Fed week, Israel and Iran, retail sales and housing starts
The upcoming week is packed with significant data releases, a Federal Reserve meeting, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Stay tuned for updates on labor versus inflation risks and other market trends.
Keep a close eye on the data this week for further insights into the market landscape.