(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s preferred price metric and a snapshot of consumer demand are seen corroborating both the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell’s view that the economy remains strong.
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Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index to rise just 0.1% in August for the second time in three months. The inflation gauge is likely to have climbed 2.3% from a year earlier, slightly above the central bank’s 2% goal but the smallest annual gain since early 2021.
The slowdown in inflation from a year ago is attributed to falling energy and weaker food prices, along with moderating core costs. The PCE price gauge excluding food and fuel is expected to have risen 0.2% for a third consecutive month, according to economists.
The decrease in inflationary pressures earlier this year gave Fed policymakers the confidence to lower rates by a half percentage point on Sept. 18. This was the first rate cut in over four years and marked a shift in the central bank’s policy towards supporting the job market.
Investors will be closely monitoring remarks from several Fed officials in the upcoming week. Governors Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, and Lisa Cook, as well as regional presidents Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee, are scheduled to speak at various events.
Along with the August inflation figures, data on personal spending and income will be released, with economists predicting another solid increase in household outlays. Continued growth in consumer spending enhances the likelihood of sustained economic expansion.
Additional economic data for August includes new-home sales, second-quarter GDP, weekly jobless claims, and durable goods orders.
On the international front, the OECD will unveil new economic forecasts on Wednesday, while central banks in Switzerland and Sweden may implement rate cuts, and the Australian central bank is expected to maintain its current stance.
For more information on the past week’s events and a preview of upcoming global economic activity, click here.
Asia
In Australia, the Reserve Bank is anticipated to keep its cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% during the upcoming board meeting. Attention will be on Governor Michele Bullock’s stance following positive labor figures that have led to reduced expectations of a rate cut in December.
Bloomberg Economics still sees potential for RBA easing in the fourth quarter. Data on Australian inflation for August will be released on Wednesday.
Elsewhere in Asia, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to report a slowdown in price growth for August, while Japan will release fresh inflation data for Tokyo consumer prices on Friday.
China is expected to maintain its 1-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.3%, with industrial profit growth data for August scheduled to be released on Friday.
Trade statistics from South Korea, Thailand, and Hong Kong will also be published.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Four central bank decisions are on the agenda in Europe, with a focus on whether policymakers will follow the Fed’s lead with a half-point rate cut.
Among these decisions, the Swiss National Bank is set to announce its policy on Thursday, with expectations leaning towards a quarter-point move. Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point and outline plans for further cuts.
In Eastern Europe, both the Hungarian and Czech central banks are expected to deliver quarter-point rate reductions.
In the euro zone and the UK, purchasing managers indexes for September will provide insight into private-sector activity at the end of the third quarter. Germany’s Ifo business confidence gauge and new forecasts from the country’s economic institutes are also scheduled.
French and Spanish inflation readings for September will be closely watched, with expectations of a drop below 2% for both countries.
Across Africa, various central bank decisions are planned, including Nigeria likely pausing its tightening cycle and Morocco expected to maintain its rate.
Elsewhere, Zambia’s Finance Minister will announce plans for economic recovery in the country.
Latin America
In Brazil, the central bank’s September rate meeting minutes and a quarterly inflation report will be key highlights. Updates on economic estimates and scenarios are expected, with a focus on inflation, the key rate, and GDP growth.
Argentina is set to release GDP-proxy readings for July, suggesting a potential second-half recovery for the economy.
In Mexico, retail sales data and mid-month inflation figures will be closely watched ahead of the central bank’s upcoming meeting.
–With contribution from Brian Fowler, Robert Jameson, Niclas Rolander, Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski, Matthew Hill, and Souhail Karam.
(Updates with Australia in Asia section)
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