Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data offers a weekly snapshot of the market, though it can be influenced by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Recent trends have shown positive yearly growth over the last six weeks. However, there was a slowdown in yearly growth last week, with a dip in week-to-week data.
It typically takes 30-60 days for weekly pending sales to be reflected in sales data. Mortgage rates above 6.64% and exceeding 7% can significantly impact this data. Historically, rates below 6.25% have been favorable, excluding short-term variables.
Weekly pending sales for the past two years:
- 2026: 70,209
- 2025: 69,183
Mortgage purchase application data
Purchase application data serves as a forward-looking indicator, with growth here leading home sales by approximately 30-90 days. While there was year-over-year growth last week, it slowed from 12% to 5%, with a 5% decline week-to-week. Higher mortgage rates impacted the yearly growth data last week.
I find value in having 12-14 weeks of positive weekly growth in this data line, alongside year-over-year growth, which indicates a strong trend. In 2026, every week has shown positive year-over-year growth.
2026 data breakdown:
- 5 positive week-over-week prints
- 5 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 11 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, projected ranges included:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
With the onset of the Iran conflict, there was anticipation of potential economic implications leading to higher energy and input costs. The 10-year yield surged to near peak levels forecasted for 2026 due to the escalation, impacting mortgage rates.
Despite the conflict not being the initial reason for the forecasted levels, analysts had to adjust to unforeseen events.
Mortgage rates closed the week at 6.64%, per Mortgage News Daily, while Polly’s mortgage rate lock data reported a weekend rate of 6.41%.
Mortgage spreads
In 2026, mortgage spreads continue to present a positive outlook for the housing market, with rates potentially surpassing 7% in previous years. Despite recent increases due to the war, current spreads are still more favorable compared to past years.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%, with last week’s spreads closing at 2%.
Comparison of current rates with worst spread levels in the past three years:
- If we had the worst levels from 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.75% today.
- If we had the worst levels from 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.37% today.
- If we had the worst levels from 2025, mortgage rates would be 7.18% today.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory is on the rise with seasonal trends, though the growth rate has slowed from peak levels seen last year. Despite this slowdown, the current inventory levels are healthier compared to previous years.
Year-over-year growth in inventory declined from 33% to 5.69% last week, with past trends showing increased inventory amid higher rates and rising new listings.
- Weekly inventory change (March 21-March 28): Inventory rose from 705,633 to 713,549
- Same week last year (March 22 -March 39): Inventory rose from 668,185 to 675,557
New listings data
New listings data showed a slight year-over-year increase last week, albeit with a slow overall performance. Ideally, new listings should range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during peak seasons, reflecting a normal market scenario.
Despite current trends deviating from past figures, it’s essential to note the significant variations in new listings during the housing bubble crash.
Last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 67,934
- 2025: 67,855
Price-cut percentage
Traditionally, a third of homes undergo price reductions before selling, reflecting market dynamics. As mortgage rates and inventory levels rise, the percentage of price cuts tends to increase.
Initial forecasts for 2026 indicated a negative 0.62% trend nationally, which may see adjustments due to lower-than-expected mortgage rates and improved mortgage spreads. The price-cut percentage remains below last year’s levels.
Last week’s price-cut percentage:
The week ahead: Iran, Iran, Iran, and jobs week
Amidst the ongoing conflict, the upcoming week holds significance with jobs data and market reactions to geopolitical events. The impact of the war on oil prices and labor statistics remains uncertain, with markets reacting cautiously to developments.