Our weekly pending contract data is still showing positive year-over-year growth, albeit only by 1%, as demand growth has slowed due to higher mortgage rates. This raises questions about the outlook for the spring housing market. Let’s delve into the data to understand what we can anticipate.
Weekly pending sales
The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos Research provides valuable insights into real-time trends in housing demand. While the data has consistently shown growth compared to 2022 and 2023, the growth rate for 2025 versus 2024 has slowed to just 1%.
Weekly pending contract data is highly seasonal, with the upcoming months typically witnessing an increase in demand. The impact of higher mortgage rates on this trend remains a key concern. Despite mortgage rates surpassing 7%, we still observe slightly positive year-over-year data.
Weekly pending contracts for the past few years are as follows:
- 2025: 252,586
- 2024: 250,621
- 2023: 231,674
Purchase application data
While purchase application data tends to decline during the holiday period, the data remained resilient before the holidays despite rising mortgage rates.
Comparing to early 2024 when mortgage rates fluctuated between 6.75% and 7.50%, the purchase application data showed 14 negative prints, 2 flat prints, and 2 positive prints. Monitoring this data closely is crucial as rates approach levels seen in 2024.