Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The recent sanctions imposed by the US on Russia, the first under the second Trump Administration, are not just aimed at harming the Russian economy but are part of a broader strategy to weaponize energy geopolitics and potentially weaken the BRICS alliance, particularly its core members Russia, India, and China (RIC). This analysis is based on the strong trade ties that India and China have with the US, despite facing significant tariffs, their ongoing rivalry even amid attempts at reconciliation, and their energy dependence on Russia.
India and China have larger trade volumes with the US compared to Russia, but Russia plays a crucial role in supplying energy to both countries.
Although neither country wishes to pay higher prices for oil, the potential additional costs of increased US tariffs as punishment for not complying with sanctions, as well as the threat of secondary sanctions on their financial institutions, could lead them to reconsider their stance.
By appearing more cooperative with the US than the other, India and China seek to avoid the risk of their rival forming closer ties with the US against them, which could have significant strategic consequences. This dynamic creates a sort of “prisoner’s dilemma” scenario for them.
Furthermore, both countries may calculate that by partially complying with the US sanctions, they can prevent their rival from enhancing its relations with Russia at their expense. Recent reports suggest that both India and China have decreased their purchases of Russian oil even before the sanctions were imposed.
Despite these factors, it is unlikely that India and China will completely cease importing Russian energy in the near future due to supply constraints in the global market. Even if they reduce their dependence on Russian energy, they may continue to engage with Russia at discounted rates.
While the US may highlight the reduced imports of Indian and Chinese energy under pressure to undermine the unity within BRICS, particularly the RIC grouping, this propaganda campaign is unlikely to have a substantial impact on global dynamics.
Ultimately, the US’ efforts to weaponize energy geopolitics to weaken BRICS may succeed in terms of optics, but are unlikely to significantly alter the reality of the situation.
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