Israel strikes southern Beirut as oil prices surge

Today’s agenda: US ports strike suspended; Blackstone on commercial property; Wall Street warms to Harris; Zuckerberg’s political neutrality; and “peak” obesity

Just hours ago, the Israeli military conducted some of its heaviest air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. We’ll bring you the latest details as we get them from our reporters on the ground.

With the Middle East still bracing for Israel’s widely expected retaliation on Iran for its missile attack, here’s what you need to know.

Impact on energy prices: Oil prices have surged to their highest level in more than a month, with Brent crude rising by more than 5 per cent to $77.62 a barrel after US President Joe Biden said strikes on Iran’s oil facilities were being discussed. Yesterday, Libya said it would resume full oil production after a dispute between rival political factions was resolved, allaying some concerns about supply disruption from Iran and other Gulf producers.

Could Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities? This would be difficult for several reasons. To cross more than a thousand miles and hit Iran’s main nuclear bases, Israeli planes would need to fly over the sovereign airspace of several countries, including Iraq and Syria. To fly there and return would take all of Israel’s aerial refuelling capability, according to a US analysis, and overcoming Iran’s heavy defences would require nearly a third of the Israeli air force’s combat-capable aircraft.

Biden has also said he would not back the move. Without US support, a solo Israeli air strike would be highly risky and at best only delay rather than destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, analysts said.

• Toll in Lebanon: Satellite data shows Israel’s bombing has so far damaged or destroyed about 3,100 buildings and killed more than 1,300 people.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

• Economic data: Construction purchasing managers’ indices are due for the EU, France, Germany, Italy and the UK today, while the US reports labour data.

• Europe: EU members are expected to vote today on higher tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China, while leaders of French-speaking nations meet for the biennial Francophonie Summit in Villers-Cotterêts, France.

• Tunisia: The north African country holds its presidential election on Sunday.

• Israel: Sunday marks the anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, when a coalition of Arab states launched a surprise attack on the Jewish holy day in 1973.

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

Five more top stories

1. A strike that closed US east and Gulf coast ports will be suspended after the dockworkers’ union and the group representing ocean carriers reached an agreement yesterday, averting for now a costly blow to the economy ahead of the presidential election. Here’s how long the temporary reprieve will last.

2. Blackstone president Jonathan Gray said an accelerating recovery in most of the commercial property market would not be enough to save some over-indebted owners from having to take losses, mainly on offices, adding that “most of the losses will happen in the equity market” but some writedowns may have a knock-on effect on banks, too.

• EU property: Eurozone house prices have risen for the first time in more than a year, suggesting lower mortgage rates are fuelling a real estate recovery.

3. Italy will seek to raise more taxes from companies currently earning windfall profits as Rome struggles to plug a budget deficit that has raised alarm bells in Brussels. The country’s finance minister did not provide details on how the government planned to do so but said yesterday that the upcoming budget would “call for everyone to contribute, not just banks”.

4. Rachel Reeves attacked her predecessor for cutting back on planned investment as she cleared the way for billions of pounds of extra capital spending in this month’s Budget. “Investment was not prioritised by the last government,” the UK chancellor told reporters yesterday. “I am not going to make those mistakes.”

5. A Republican Senate candidate has attacked JD Vance’s refusal to accept Donald Trump’s 2020 election defeat as “crazy” and warned it puts Republicans running for Congress at risk of losing their races. Larry Hogan said he was also concerned about the former president questioning the results of next month’s presidential election. Read his full interview with the Financial Times.

With just a month left in the White House race, stay updated with our US Election Countdown newsletter. Sign up here.

News in-depth

Wall Street is warming to Kamala Harris after weeks of behind-the-scenes courting of donors, even as some executives still lean towards Donald Trump and his plans for deep tax cuts. The Democratic candidate has been trying to reassure finance bosses that she would be a moderate in office after what many considered President Joe Biden’s hostility to business.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Mark Zuckerberg: The Meta CEO’s effort to be politically neutral has led to criticisms he is going too far to placate Donald Trump.

• Sinn Féin: After watching its support slip dramatically, Ireland’s pro-unity party has its work cut out to stage a comeback in a looming election.

• British Airways: The airline’s customers have suffered a doubling of flight delays and cancellations to and from Heathrow since the pandemic, an FT analysis shows.

• French politics: Seen as an “insurance policy” against the far right, one of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet picks has sparked particular controversy.

Chart of the day

Have we passed peak obesity? Around the world, obesity rates have been stubbornly climbing for decades, if anything accelerating in recent years. But newly released data finds that the US adult obesity rate fell by about two percentage points between 2020 and 2023. Here’s what could be causing the drop in body weight.

Take a break from the news

It seems everyone has a podcast these days. Even the head of Norway’s $1.6tn oil fund, Nicolai Tangen, has one, in which he has interviewed other top bosses including Elon Musk and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon. Management editor Anjli Raval explains why there are so many CEO podcasters.

Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Tee Zhuo