- 4 positive readings
- 3 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
Throughout the year, we have observed consistent growth in most of the weekly data for 2025. While the growth may not be extraordinary, it is a positive trend from the lowest starting point. The purchase application data typically looks ahead about 30 to 90 days, indicating a cautious optimism in the market. If mortgage rates were to decrease towards 6% and remain stable, it could potentially lead to an increase in sales forecast, possibly reaching 4.2 million. This optimistic scenario hinges on lower mortgage rates driving the market forward.
Weekly pending sales
The latest weekly pending contract data from Altos provides valuable insights into current housing demand trends. While significant growth in housing demand data typically requires mortgage rates to approach 6%, recent weeks have shown improvement even with rates above 6.64%. Although weekly pending contracts remain slightly negative, there has been a recent uptick in performance.
Weekly pending contracts for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 346,533
- 2024: 356,618
- 2023: 327,933
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2025 forecast, the expected ranges are:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
- 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%
Following a week filled with significant economic events, mortgage rates and the 10-year yield are at a critical juncture. The 10-year yield recently tested a key level, rebounding and closing at around 4.25%. Breaking below the 4.15% to 4.18% range will require softer economic indicators, particularly related to labor data, to capture the attention of the Fed and bond market.
Mortgage spreads
The housing market’s dynamics would be vastly different if not for the improved mortgage spreads since 2024. Typically ranging between 1.60% and 1.80%, these spreads have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Anticipating a modest decline in mortgage spreads for the remainder of the year, around 0.27% to 0.41%, could lead to lower mortgage rates below 6%.
Weekly housing inventory data
As spring arrives, we anticipate a traditional boost in active listings, signaling a more balanced housing market. While inventory levels haven’t yet reached the 2019 level goal, the progress is evident. Last week saw another positive increase in inventory.
- Weekly inventory change (March 14-March 21): Inventory rose from 655,626 to 668,155
- The same week last year (March 15-March 22): Inventory rose from 507,160 to 512,759
- The lowest inventory recorded was in 2022 at 240,497
- The inventory peak for 2024 was 739,434
- For comparison, active listings in the same week in 2015 were 985,411
New listings data
While the growth in new listing data has slowed, 2025 shows stronger performance compared to previous years. The goal of reaching at least 80,000 new listings during peak seasonal weeks is within reach, reflecting positive market trends.
National new listing data for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 69,701
- 2024: 60,328
- 2023: 49,993
Price-cut percentage
Approximately one-third of all homes experience price reductions in an average year, reflecting market fluctuations. With expectations of modest home price increases in 2025, the current percentage of homes with price cuts indicates a cautious approach due to elevated mortgage rates.
Anticipating a modest increase in home prices for the rest of 2025, the outlook remains conservative unless a significant decline in mortgage rates occurs, potentially leading to negative real home-price growth.
The week ahead: Inflation, new home sales, pending home sales, Fed speeches, and more
Upcoming data releases on inflation, new home sales, pending home sales, and Federal Reserve speeches are expected to impact market sentiments. As we approach significant events like “Liberation Day” and await decisions on tariff policies, market volatility may increase. Stay tuned for updates on jobless claims and other key economic indicators.
Additionally, new home sales and pending home sales data releases will provide insights into the housing market dynamics, along with national home price index reports. The week ahead promises to be eventful with various economic indicators shaping market trends.