Weekly housing inventory data
Over the past few years, our weekly housing inventory data has shown interesting trends. In the pre-COVID era, we typically saw peak inventory levels in October or November. However, a shift occurred around mid-June this year when mortgage rates started to decrease. Despite expectations, inventory actually decreased in August, even with mortgage rates still above 6.50%. Year-over-year inventory growth has also dropped from recent highs to 22%. This unexpected pattern will continue to be monitored throughout the year.
Last week, there was a slight increase in inventory:
- Weekly inventory change (Aug. 22-Aug. 29): Inventory went from 861,238 to 860,728
- The same week last year (Aug. 23-Aug. 30): Inventory increased from 698,161 to 704,654
It’s important to note that due to the holiday weekend, next week’s housing data may be impacted, but last week’s data appeared normal.
New listings data
The peak for new listings data this year was during the week of May 23, reaching 83,143 listings. Since then, there has been a gradual decline in the number of new listings. Despite initial excitement about reaching the target of 80,000 listings for 2025, consecutive weeks with listings above 80,000 during the seasonal peak period were not achieved. We are now entering the traditional seasonal decline.
Comparing new listings data over the past two years:
- 2025: 63,761
- 2024: 59,566
Price-cut percentage
Price reductions are common in the housing market, especially when inventory levels increase and mortgage rates remain high. The percentage of homes experiencing price reductions has been higher this year compared to last year, indicating a more buyer-friendly market in 2025. This trend aligns with a cautious growth forecast for the year.
Recent data on the percentages of homes with price reductions:
10-year yield and mortgage rates
Expectations for mortgage rates and the 10-year yield in 2025 were set within specific ranges. Surprisingly, we observed the lowest mortgage rates of the year despite anticipated rises. The upcoming jobs report will provide important data impacting the Federal Reserve and the markets.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads in 2025 have been favorable, contributing to improved pricing. Comparisons to previous years highlight the impact of mortgage spreads on current rates.
Purchase application data
Positive trends have been observed in purchase application data when rates fall below key levels. Continued growth in this area is promising for the housing market.
Total pending sales
Total pending sales data indicates positive year-over-year growth, reflecting current trends in housing demand.
Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending home sales data offers insights into short-term trends, though it can be influenced by external factors such as holidays. Year-over-year growth remains positive in this data line.
The week ahead: Jobs week!
Anticipate significant developments in the upcoming week, particularly with the last jobs report before the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Stay informed as this week may bring unexpected twists in the market.