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Home»Personal Finance»Mortgage Rates Move Lower as Economic Outlook Worsens
Personal Finance

Mortgage Rates Move Lower as Economic Outlook Worsens

April 12, 2026No Comments6 Mins Read
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Mortgage interest rates improved slightly this week, though that’s not much comfort given the state of the world. In truth, it’s actually a sign of how negative the economic outlook’s becoming.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.25% APR in the week ending April 9, according to rates provided to BW by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates are still solidly above 6%, and we aren’t seeing the kind of steady decline we saw in February. April rates have gradually eroded a few basis points a day, so they haven’t been grabbing headlines, let alone dramatically changing the picture for prospective home buyers. Here’s what’s been going on.

Why mortgage rates are falling

Mortgage rates rose rapidly in March as the market reacted to potential inflation risks, with damage to oil production facilities and throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz causing fuel prices to spike. As we’ve moved into April, mortgage rates have started easing downward — but it’s not because things are looking brighter.

“The big shift is that markets are starting to see the conflict in the Middle East and higher oil prices as less of a short-term inflation story and more of a longer-term growth story,” said Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist at LoanDepot, in an email commentary. In other words, it’s not just where higher gas or grocery prices are today; it’s how these price pressures may be shifting consumers’ and businesses’ planning.

“The current pressures on household finances can be thought of in two categories: those from changes being experienced right now and those that people are anticipating. Real changes include higher gas prices and a labor market that isn’t conducive to advancement. Anticipated changes include things like the fear of recession and everything that could entail,” explains Elizabeth Renter, BW senior economist.

If people (and companies) start to rein in their spending because of anticipated changes, those fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy. “While this can prepare them for a potential economic downturn, it can also impact the real economy. In time, this restrained spending can pull down overall economic growth,” Renter says.

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On one hand, slower consumer and business spending could help cool inflation. When there’s less demand, there’s less room for price growth. But on the other hand, weaker spending could cool the whole economy.

This makes the Federal Reserve’s job that much trickier when it meets at the end of this month. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it controls a key short-term interest rate that influences economic growth. In general, when inflation’s running hot, the Fed raises that rate to curb borrowing and spending.

This morning’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) — which is pre-war February data — showed that inflation was already accelerating. So-called core PCE, which strips out the food and fuel prices that we expect to be especially volatile, hit 3% year-over-year in February. Even though right now February feels like it must have been a glorious time with much cheaper gas, clearly, things weren’t that great.

Normally, April releases would all feature March data. But as different federal agencies play catch-up from last fall’s government shutdown, we’re getting data from multiple months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is up to speed, so tomorrow we’ll see March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Current market predictions show a much more significant year-over-year overall increase with just a modest uptick in core CPI.

The Federal Reserve targets a 2% rate of inflation, which is something we haven’t seen in five solid years. At their March meeting, the Fed governors shifted their inflation predictions for 2026 higher.

Their projections for the year 2027 and beyond indicate that they do not anticipate a sustained increase in inflation. This would be positive news if inflation is indeed on the decline. However, it would be concerning if inflation were to decrease due to a deteriorating economy.

For potential home buyers, it is important to consider that mortgage rates fluctuate in real-time. While current homeowners seeking to refinance may have the ability to act swiftly in response to rate changes, prospective buyers often do not have the same flexibility. The home buying process is significant and time-consuming, with mortgage rates typically being secured after an offer has been accepted rather than based on daily fluctuations.

Despite recent fluctuations, if you are financially and emotionally prepared to pursue homeownership this spring, do not be discouraged by mortgage rate news. While interest rates briefly fell below 6% in February, they are currently only slightly above that mark. Additionally, today’s rates remain significantly lower than those from the same period last year, with rates over 60 basis points higher at that time.

Although the current environment may seem uncertain, it is important to note that there is a notable increase in housing inventory, which could stimulate sales. However, for buyers to feel confident in their decision, there needs to be more stability in economic policies rather than just announcements.

In conclusion, while the housing market may present challenges, staying informed and making decisions based on your individual circumstances is key. By being prepared and staying up-to-date on market trends, you can navigate the home buying process with confidence.

About the author:
Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) at BW since 2019. With a background in sociology, Kate is passionate about addressing issues like homeownership inequality and higher education, and enjoys simplifying government programs for consumers. Prior to her work at BW, she covered topics such as home remodeling, decor, and maintenance for This Old House.

By Kate Wood

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Mortgage Rates Move Lower as Economic Outlook Worsens

April 12, 20260
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