Revisions have been made to the existing-home sales forecast for 2025, with a downward trend from the late 2024 prediction. The original forecast anticipated existing-home sales to reach 4.9 million in 2025, with new-home sales increasing by 11%.
NAR has also updated its 2026 projections, lowering the new-home sales forecast growth from 8% to 5% for the coming year. On the other hand, existing-home sales are now expected to grow by 11%, falling within the range of 10% to 15% as previously outlined by the trade group.
Despite the slightly less optimistic outlook, Yun expressed positivity regarding the market’s direction. He stated, “The worst is over [for home sales]. The worst for inventory is over. I think the recession probability is still slim. Job additions, lower mortgage rates, and all the factors driving home sales are moving positively, so look for more business opportunities this year.”
The issue of strained affordability continues to impede home sales, and NAR’s updated forecast reflects this concern. Initially projecting a 2% growth in home prices for 2025 and 2026, NAR has now revised these figures upwards to 3% and 4%, respectively.
NAR’s revised existing-home sales estimate of 4.3 million aligns more closely with other forecasters’ predictions for 2025. The sales range varied from NAR’s 4.9 million at the top end to Realtor.com’s 4 million at the lower end.
HousingWire’s 2025 forecast, crafted by Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami and Altos founder Mike Simonsen, predicted 4.2 million in sales and a 3.5% rise in home prices.
How accurate are their forecasts thus far? According to the recent report from NAR, existing-home sales for February were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, with the median sale price increasing by 3.8%.