In the upcoming “do-over” presidential election in Romania, the first major poll indicates that a nationalist candidate is leading in the first round, with a centrist expected to win the run-off if no candidate secures over 50% of the initial votes. The nationalist candidate has tempered his rhetoric, even labeling Russia as a “threat,” in light of the courts and election commissions cracking down on NATO and EU opponents.
It is worth noting that previous polls underestimated support for now-banned nationalist Calin Georgescu, who unexpectedly won 23% of the votes in the previous election. Following the annulment of the election, a new AtlasIntel survey shows a different nationalist poised to win the first round of voting on May 4, with two prominent right-wing candidates vying for the position.
The two nationalist candidates, George Simion and Anamaria Gavrila, are expected to perform similarly in the polls. However, the survey suggests that the eventual nationalist victor in the first round will likely lose in the May 18 run-off to centrist independent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.
Despite being under investigation for inciting violence, Simion has shifted his stance to appeal to a broader audience, distancing himself from extreme nationalist views. He now emphasizes Romania’s commitment to NATO and the EU, highlighting the threat posed by Russia and advocating for increased European military spending.
The political climate in Romania is tense, with nationalist candidates facing scrutiny and even bans for their opposition to NATO and the EU. The upcoming election will be a critical moment for the country’s direction, with competing visions for sovereignty and foreign policy at stake.