The global aluminum supply chain is under immense pressure, causing the price of alumina to soar to a near-record high of $707.59 per ton on Wednesday, coming close to the 2018 peak of $707.75. Supply chain disruptions and production issues in key alumina-exporting countries like Guinea, Australia, and China have led to shortages in the market.
Guinea, a major source of bauxite for China and other countries, is facing supply chain challenges due to trade disputes with local government officials. Australia, another significant producer of bauxite and alumina, has seen exports decline due to climate change policies and diminishing natural gas supplies.
Analysts warn that there is no immediate relief in sight for alumina prices, with Chinese smelter inventories decreasing and output cuts not being seriously considered yet. Data from Fastmarkets shows that alumina prices are approaching record levels at around $707 per ton.
UBS and Morgan Stanley have both highlighted the growing concerns in the global aluminum supply chain, with challenges in bauxite and alumina supply from Australia to Guinea. The possibility of a significant stimulus package from China could further impact the aluminum market.
It is clear that the aluminum industry is facing unprecedented challenges that could have significant implications for the market in the coming months.
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