Peace In Ukraine | ZeroHedge

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via substack,

The conflict in Ukraine, having surpassed the 1000-day mark, is edging towards a grim stalemate, affecting all parties involved. Russian forces are making advances through the lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), causing what appears to be a disorderly retreat in certain areas. Immediate action is necessary to prevent the conflict from escalating further and potentially sparking World War III.

The conflict in Ukraine has been heavily fueled by emotional war propaganda, particularly from the European mainstream media. This has led to a heightened emotional barrier among politicians, making it challenging for them to engage in negotiations that require compromises from both sides. The prevailing narrative insists on Ukraine emerging victorious, leaving little room for exploring alternative resolutions to the conflict.

However, the path to peace lies in a return to pragmatic politics in Europe, focusing on practical considerations rather than values or ideologies.

Essentially, successful peace negotiations in Ukraine must be based on six key facts:

1. In any non-nuclear military scenario, Russia is likely to come out as the victor in the Ukraine conflict.
2. Russia is not inclined to seek the complete occupation of Ukraine.
3. Negotiations must address almost all of the Kremlin’s publicly stated objectives, including neutrality, limited military presence, territorial concessions, and non-membership in NATO but potentially membership in the EU.
4. A credible force must be designated to establish and oversee the ceasefire line.
5. Due to a lack of mutual trust, all parties must commit to de-escalation measures before reaching an agreement.
6. Efforts must be made to prevent the post-war collapse of Ukraine to avoid widespread terrorism and lawlessness in neighboring regions. Collapse is imminent unless all parties pledge to support Ukraine pre-agreement.

Preconditions for Negotiations

Russia’s Role in Ukraine

Russia’s military actions in Ukraine have not only targeted the AFU but have also inflicted significant damage on Ukrainian society. With Russian troops making rapid progress and recent air raids indicating a willingness to escalate, it is evident that the endgame in Ukraine, without nuclear weapons, is the surrender or negotiated peace of the AFU.

Therefore, the path to peace must align with the original objectives of the Kremlin. The stated goals of the Special Military Operation (SMO), initiated on February 24, 2022, were as follows:

1. Defending the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
2. Eradicating “neo-Nazis” from Ukrainian leadership.
3. Halting Ukraine’s nuclear weapons program.
4. Eliminating the NATO infrastructure in Ukraine that poses a threat to Russia.

Essentially, the aim was to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine, with the terms used strategically to garner public support. The actual objectives of the Kremlin likely revolve around neutralizing Ukraine and curtailing NATO influence. This is where the path to peace lies.

It is also unlikely that Russia seeks complete annexation and occupation of Ukraine, considering the economic strain and consequences of the Crimea annexation in 2014. The ongoing conflict has already taken a toll on Russian finances, making a full-scale occupation unfeasible.

Kremlin’s Objectives and Ceasefire Line

The publicly declared aims of the SMO indicate that Russia aims for Ukraine’s neutrality, limited military capabilities, and annexation of specific eastern regions predominantly inhabited by ethnic Russians. Given Russia’s dominance on the battlefield, peace negotiations must align with Kremlin’s terms to avoid a more dire outcome.

Establishing a stable ceasefire and buffer zone between the AFU and Russian forces is crucial. While previous peacekeeping efforts have faltered, the United Nations could provide an impartial platform for overseeing ceasefire implementation, given the skepticism towards other entities from both Russia and the US.

Rebuilding Trust through De-escalation Measures

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated divisions within Europe and strained relations between Russia and NATO. Escalation has been fueled by NATO’s involvement in Ukraine, which deviates from the norm of not admitting conflict-involved countries into the alliance.

Pre-agreement de-escalation measures are essential to rebuild trust and pave the way for peace:

1. Russia must limit its military presence to designated areas, withdraw attack systems, commit to non-aggression in Europe, participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction, and express openness to trade once sanctions are lifted.
2. The EU and US should halt weapon deliveries to Ukraine and declare readiness to lift economic sanctions.
3. The US and Russia should affirm their support for Ukraine’s independence and neutrality.
4. The EU and US should prepare an emergency economic support package for Ukraine.
5. NATO leadership changes should be announced, followed by a comprehensive audit of NATO’s actions and policies.

Preventing Post-war Collapse of Ukraine

The war’s toll on Ukraine’s economy and society necessitates immediate action to prevent a chaotic aftermath. The US and EU must provide essential provisions post-conflict and oversee the rebuilding process to avert further destabilization.

Key steps to prevent Ukraine’s collapse post-war include:

1. The US and EU should ensure immediate provisions for food, shelter, and healthcare and establish a foreign-led police force to maintain order and disarm civilians.
2. The US and EU should take charge of Ukraine’s housing and infrastructure restoration, with Russia potentially contributing to the rebuilding effort in western Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill.
3. Ukraine must establish neutral and effective governance structures, hold general elections promptly, and seek financial support from international organizations for long-term stability.

Conclusions

The conflict in Ukraine has not only devastated the country but also strained European security. European leaders missed opportunities to prevent escalation, leading to the current precarious situation. Realistic assessments and alignment with Kremlin’s objectives are crucial for achieving peace in Ukraine without triggering a cycle of re-armament and potential conflict. The need for peace in Ukraine is more pressing than ever.

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