(Bloomberg) — The upcoming week holds significant events that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s stance on another interest-rate cut in November, with Jerome Powell set to address economists and new employment data set to be released by the government.
At a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday, Fed Chair Powell will discuss the US economic outlook. Later in the week, the September jobs report is expected to reveal a healthy labor market showing signs of moderation.
Economists anticipate a 146,000 increase in payrolls for September, similar to the previous month, maintaining three-month average job growth at its weakest level since mid-2019. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise by 3.8% year-over-year.
Recent labor disputes, including strikes by Boeing Co. factory workers and threatened strikes by dockworkers, indicate potential disruptions in the employment market ahead of the Fed’s November meeting.
In addition to the monthly payrolls report, Tuesday will see the release of job openings data, which is expected to show vacancies near the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. Attention will also be on the quit rate and dismissals to gauge labor demand trends.
Bloomberg Economics analysts caution that the headline figure for nonfarm payrolls in September may overstate labor-market strength due to various factors.
Industry surveys, including the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services indexes, will provide further insights into private-sector hiring trends.
In Canada, home sales data from major cities like Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver will offer a glimpse into the real estate market following central bank rate cuts.
Global highlights for the week include data indicating slowing inflation in regions like the euro zone, Turkey, and South Korea, as well as business surveys in China.
For a detailed analysis of past events and a preview of upcoming global economic developments, click here.
On the Asian front, China’s purchasing manager indexes will kick off the week, following recent stimulus measures by authorities. Manufacturing PMI figures from other countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are also expected.
In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba is likely to be named prime minister on Tuesday, with the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey anticipated to show business sentiment remaining positive.
South Korea and Pakistan are expected to report cooling inflation figures, potentially influencing central bank decisions. Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Korea will release trade data, with Vietnam unveiling GDP and inflation figures.
Turning to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, the focus will be on euro-zone inflation data, which is below the European Central Bank’s target. Industrial production figures from France and Spain will provide insights into manufacturing activity.
The ECB’s upcoming decisions, including a potential rate cut in October, will be closely monitored. Central bank meetings in various countries, such as Poland, Romania, and Tanzania, will also impact regional economies.
Latin America will see rate decisions in countries like Colombia and Peru, with economic indicators from Chile and Brazil expected to reflect growth trends. Public finance reports from Brazil will be closely watched amid fiscal concerns.
–With contributions from Paul Wallace, Demetrios Pogkas, Ragnhildur Sigurdardottir, Brian Fowler, Robert Jameson, Jane Pong, Laura Dhillon Kane, Piotr Skolimowski, Monique Vanek, and Niclas Rolander.
(Updates with UK in EMEA section)
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