The conversation around autonomous vehicles (AVs) in North America has been dominated by Tesla’s robotaxi reveal and Waymo’s rapid expansion across U.S. cities. A recent note from Goldman Sachs highlights that AVs have officially entered the commercialization phase in ridesharing and trucking, with projections indicating significant growth well into the 2030s.
Goldman analysts, led by Mark Delaney, reported that there are already over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis on U.S. roads, with Tesla set to launch commercial robotaxi operations in Austin in June. The U.S. rideshare market, valued at $58 billion, is predicted to expand to over $336 billion by 2030, with robotaxis expected to capture about $7 billion of that market.
Waymo, Google’s AV subsidiary, leads the autonomous vehicle space with 1,500 vehicles operating in various metro areas nationwide, including Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin. Tesla is also gearing up to launch its robotaxi service in Austin this week. Delaney forecasts that there will be over 1.8K commercial autonomous vehicles in the U.S. by the end of 2025 and 35K by 2030, with falling costs playing a key role in enabling this growth.
In addition to robotaxis, AV-enabled Class 8 trucks are also set to revolutionize the freight industry. While currently a small part of the Class 8 fleet, AV trucks have the potential to lower costs and extend operational hours. Goldman predicts that there will be 25,000 AV trucks on the road by 2030, capturing $18 billion of the freight market.
Overall, the shift towards AVs in ridesharing and trucking is poised to transform the transportation industry in the coming years. For more detailed insights, the full note from Goldman Sachs can be accessed here.