Presented by QTR’s Fringe Finance
On Wednesday morning last week, silver saw a 6% increase, reaching $91 per ounce. Whether this surge signifies a short squeeze or a blow-off top is currently insignificant. To quote the character from 10 Things I Hate About You, “the sh*t hath hitteth the faneth”.
During a recent Twitter Spaces session with Peter Schiff, I mentioned my belief that the rally in silver and gold had not yet concluded. This sentiment was also echoed in a conversation with Larry Lepard, where we delved into topics related to sound money and markets: Larry Lepard: 2026 Predictions For Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and Stocks
For years, I have been discussing the concept of a “blow-off valve” that would activate once the pressure from money printing reached a critical point within the monetary system. In May 2023, I first documented this prediction in an article: here:
The most likely candidates to “blowoff” are precious metals, in my opinion (and maybe even bitcoin).
I have consistently forecasted that the repercussions of money printing would manifest in the prices of gold and silver. Now that valve has indeed been released. The question now is, should I take profit? Here are my thoughts.
Let’s quickly examine the bullish and bearish scenarios for silver and gold. While I maintain a long-term bullish outlook on both, the current bullish case for silver can be approached from various angles.
Firstly, the unprecedented events unfolding suggest that we might be in the midst of, or approaching, a historic short squeeze that has been speculated by many. The market is currently experiencing significant distortions due to the abundance of paper silver compared to physical silver. This situation could lead to unpredictable outcomes. The bull case is elaborated further in an interview with Andy Schectman: Is Silver At $200 Possible?. Andy explains that forced selling may resemble a market top, but in reality, it serves as a circuit breaker that reshuffles the exposure from weaker hands to stronger ones.
This realignment could potentially pave the way for silver to reach $200. If one believes that the recent surge in silver reflects a squeeze due to positioning, limited supply, or urgent demand, then margin increases might temporarily deter the momentum but not eliminate it. While policy measures can pause the squeeze, they do not resolve the underlying structural issues. In essence, the pressure can resurface once the market adjusts to the margin reset and new capital replaces liquidated positions.
During my recent conversation, I also highlighted that historically, silver’s price has increased close to 10x from breakout to peak. The current breakout occurred around $30 per ounce, indicating a 3x increase. If this historical trend persists, one could make a case for $150 or even $200 silver in the future. Additionally, silver’s inflation-adjusted all-time high is around $140 per ounce, which is something to monitor.
Regarding the bear case for the metals and the red flags I have identified, along with a comprehensive analysis of my current metals position, you can read the complete note here.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
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