Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Trump has caused a stir with a surprising lengthy post expressing his new perspective on Ukraine’s potential to reclaim lost territory with NATO’s support, hinting that they could go even further than that.
It remains uncertain whether this shift in rhetoric signifies a commitment to a prolonged conflict akin to Biden’s stance on supporting Ukraine indefinitely, potentially leading to another “forever war” or even a risk of World War III with Russia. Here are five possible motives behind Trump’s sudden change in position:
1. Signaling Displeasure With Putin
Trump’s close relationship with Putin was expected to facilitate peace negotiations, but the lack of progress can be attributed to Putin’s reluctance to make military concessions in Ukraine in exchange for promised US investments. Trump’s post may be a way of expressing disappointment with Putin for creating this zero-sum situation.
2. Signaling Support for Ukraine & NATO
Additionally, Trump’s post could be seen as a gesture of approval towards Ukraine and NATO for their compliance with his demands, such as amending a minerals deal and purchasing US weapons for Ukraine. By endorsing their shared objective of countering Russia, Trump aims to incentivize their continued cooperation.
3. Promoting the Military-Industrial Complex
By strengthening ties with NATO, Trump seeks to boost the US arms industry, solidifying its position as the leading global arms supplier. This move could potentially lead to increased orders for US weaponry, aligning with Trump’s business interests.
4. Responding to Warmongers’ Influence
Trump may have succumbed to pressure from individuals like Zelensky and Lindsey Graham, who have advocated for a more aggressive stance on Ukraine. The post suggests a shift in Trump’s perception of the conflict, possibly influenced by these warmongering voices.
5. Creating Opportunities for Exploitation
Continuing the conflict could present Trump with strategic advantages, especially following a favorable trade deal with the EU. By maintaining or escalating US involvement in the region, Trump could leverage tensions to benefit American interests.
The future actions of the US in relation to Ukraine remain uncertain, with potential escalations posing a threat of further instability. Russia may choose to respond in kind or seek compromise to avoid a catastrophic outcome.
As the proxy war intensifies, the delicate balance of power teeters on the brink of escalation, raising concerns of a potential conflict spiraling out of control.
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