The article, written by Conor Gallagher and published on NakedCapitalism.com, discusses the recent C5+1 summit at the White House that brought together the US President with the five presidents of Central Asia. The summit showcased the US’s renewed interest in the region, with deals being signed with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan on natural resources, Boeing planes, Starlink, and AI. The US aims to counter the influence of Russia, China, and Iran in the region.
The article also highlights Turkey’s increasing involvement in Central Asia, particularly through its partnership with NATO and efforts to expand its influence in the region. The Turkish-US-NATO cooperation, which has been ongoing since the toppling of Assad in Syria, has now extended into Central Asia. Turkey’s strategic moves in the region, including deepening cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, are seen as a challenge to Russia and an attempt to align Central Asia more towards the West.
Overall, the article emphasizes the growing geopolitical competition in Central Asia, with various players vying for influence in the region. The US, Turkey, Russia, China, and the EU are all making strategic moves to secure their interests in Central Asia, setting the stage for potential conflicts and alliances in the future. In late October, Türkiye and the UK finalized a major deal for the purchase of 20 new EF-2000 Eurofighter Typhoon jets, marking a significant milestone for Türkiye’s efforts to kickstart its own fighter jet program. This move reflects Türkiye’s ambitions to emerge as a global power under Erdogan’s leadership, although neighboring nations like Iran and Russia see this as a strategic alignment with Western powers. This alignment is seen as a temporary arrangement, driven by mutual interests.
The geopolitical strategy behind Türkiye’s actions is rooted in Pan-Turanist nationalism and Muslim Brotherhood-aligned political Islam, aimed at advancing Ankara’s national interests while aligning with NATO’s regional objectives. Türkiye envisions using the TRIPP as an energy corridor to transport resources from Central Asia and the Caspian to the West, bypassing Russia and Iran. This move is part of a broader plan to increase Türkiye’s influence in the region and establish a foothold in Eurasia.
The revival of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project or transport via tankers has gained momentum, with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan showing interest in the initiative. This development could potentially reshape regional energy dynamics and impact Kazakhstan’s operations. The Trans-Caspian route could complement existing pipelines like the BTC pipeline, providing a secure and Russia-free pathway for energy exports to Europe.
Despite logistical and political challenges, the support for the Trans-Caspian route is growing among Western allies, signaling a shift towards diversification and reducing dependence on Russian energy corridors. The diplomatic groundwork for this transition is in place, with the next step being the execution of the plan. The potential inclusion of a tanker fleet in the project highlights innovative solutions to overcome obstacles in pipeline construction and maritime disputes in the Caspian Sea region. Moscow and Tehran continuously refer to the Convention to effectively hinder the construction of pipelines between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. A potential alternative could involve a tanker fleet, although challenges may arise due to climate change affecting the sea, which is already receding 50 kilometers off the coast of Kazakhstan. Despite potential economic impracticality, this strategy would align with Europe’s energy approach over the past four years and could establish a “Western connection” to Central Asia by bypassing Russia and Iran.
The heads of state at the C5+1 have endorsed the development of the Trans-Caspian Trade Route, which Europe is integrating into its green energy vision. While Brussels supports the Trans-Caspian pipeline or tankers, it is also progressing with plans for the Black Sea Green Energy Corridor, aiming to transmit power generated from renewables in Azerbaijan and Georgia to Romania and other EU countries. This corridor could potentially connect with a trans-Caspian power line linking Azerbaijan with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Concerns in Moscow, Tehran, and potentially Beijing arise regarding the activities of the OTS, which aim to establish a Turkish-dominated region and diminish the power of regional leaders in favor of supranational officials, akin to the EU model. Despite economic interdependencies with Russia and China, countries in the region are taking steps to balance their relationships and hedge their positions, potentially through initiatives like the Trans-Caspian pipeline and PAKAFUZ railway.
As Russia grapples with challenges and Türkiye seeks to capitalize on opportunities, tensions rise over issues like migrant treatment, security threats, and regional influence. The West’s attempts to exploit these issues are met with responses from Moscow and Central Asian states, while Central Asian countries explore alternative migration destinations.
Moreover, the Gulf Arab states are increasing their presence in Central Asia, alongside Chinese dominance in the region. Despite Russia’s vulnerabilities and distractions, it is China, not the West, that is expanding its influence in Central Asia, overshadowing other players in terms of investments and projects. In the first half of 2025 alone, China’s investment in Central Asia reached $25 billion, marking a significant increase in their presence in the region. The Telegraph acknowledges this shift, highlighting how Chinese trade with Central Asia has surpassed that of Russia, especially following the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. With the US military bases in Central Asia closed and Russia preoccupied, China has capitalized on the opportunity to secure resource deals and engage in infrastructure development across the region.
The Central Asian states, wary of being dominated by either Russia or China, seek to maintain a balance by engaging with multiple global powers, including the US and the OTS. However, the challenge lies in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape where economic interests are often weaponized by competing powers. While the West may offer infrastructure projects to help the region diversify its energy and mineral deliveries, there are concerns about potential destabilization efforts aimed at Russia and China.
The article speculates on the future outcomes of US involvement in Central Asia, noting past failures in the region such as coup attempts and the Afghanistan withdrawal. Despite discussions about projects like the Trans-Caspian pipeline, concrete actions have been lacking. The dynamics in Central Asia are complex, with various powers vying for influence and control, setting the stage for potential conflicts and collaborations in the years to come. sentence to make it more concise:
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