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Sunday, April 12
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Trump Eyes Limited Iran Strikes, Hormuz Blockade After Peace Talks Collapse

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Summary

  • Trump considers limited strikes on Iran

  • CENTCOM confirms blockade to start at 1000ET Monday morning and will only affect Iran-related vessels

  • President Trump initiates blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warns US military will take action against Iran

  • Opportunity for diplomacy remains, WSJ reports: Regional countries are working to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table after peace talks in Islamabad ended without an agreement

  • The US delegation in Islamabad presented six “red lines” to Iran: 1) Stop all uranium enrichment; 2) Dismantle major nuclear enrichment facilities; 3) Recover highly enriched uranium; 4) Accept a broader peace and security framework with regional allies; 5) Cease funding for terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; 6) Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, without charging tolls for passage

  • Two Supertankers change course after failed peace talks

  • UAE Oil Chief cautions Iran blockading the Strait is a direct threat to global security

The likelihood of a peace deal by the end of the ceasefire period has slightly improved today but is still lower than before the talks…

Trump Considers Limited Strikes On Iran

Brent crude futures rise by 7.5% to approximately $102 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures drop around 1% following President Trump’s order for a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

A Wall Street Journal report suggests that President Trump is contemplating limited strikes on key Iranian assets to break the deadlock in peace talks.

The report states:

Trump is considering this option following the breakdown of negotiations in Pakistan. Other possibilities include resuming a full bombing campaign, though this is less likely due to concerns about further destabilizing the region and the president’s reluctance to engage in prolonged military conflicts. Another option is to impose a temporary blockade while pressuring allies to take responsibility for a prolonged military escort mission through the strait in the future.

Ceasefire talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan concluded without an agreement. These periods typically allow both parties to replenish weapons and prepare for the next phase of conflict.

OSINT sources on X report multiple US Air Force cargo jets heading to the Middle East late Sunday.

“My advice to White House officials I’ve spoken with is to secure the strait at any cost for economic, national, and global security,” said Steve Moore, a former economic advisor to Trump, as quoted by the WSJ.

Moore emphasized, “We have the capability to protect international trade flow, and we must use it. Otherwise, the global economy could spiral into a recession.”

Fred Fleitz, a former senior National Security Council official during Trump’s first term, indicated that Iran’s substantial delegation to Islamabad demonstrates potential for a diplomatic solution.

“I believe Trump is correct; Iran is running out of options,” Fleitz remarked. “This conflict is relatively new, so it’s too early to predict the outcome, but there are positive signs.”

CENTCOM Announces Blockade to Commence Monday Morning at 1000ET

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will start enforcing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, according to a statement on X.

CENTCOM provided further clarification on the vessels that will be affected, in line with President Trump’s previous declaration.

Specifically, they will only block any ship departing from or arriving at an Iranian port…

The blockade will be applied equally to vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal regions, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Ships from non-Iranian ports are permitted to transit the Strait freely

CENTCOM forces will not hinder navigation rights for vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

And so it begins.

Iran Refuses Blockade Of Hormuz Strait, But Diplomatic Door Remains Open

Despite the US’s inability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it is also “unlikely to succeed in a naval blockade,” stated Iran’s military advisor to the supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaee, in a post on X.

Rezaee stated, “Iran will not permit the US to do so and has significant untapped resources to counter it.”

“Iran is not a nation to be contained by social media posts and imaginary schemes,”

Nevertheless, despite defiant statements from both the US and Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported that, according to regional sources, the opportunity for further diplomacy remains, and a second round of negotiations could take place soon.

Regional partners are also coordinating with the US to extend the fragile two-week ceasefire period announced late Tuesday, according to the sources. The main sticking points during the Islamabad talks were reportedly reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, resolving the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and Iran’s request for the release of approximately $27 billion in frozen overseas assets.

Iranian officials offered alternative proposals to either continue limited uranium enrichment or reduce their stockpile of enriched uranium, but no consensus was reached between the two sides, the sources mentioned.

Trump’s 6 Requirements

Fox News reported that Vice President Vance presented the following “red lines” to the Iranian delegation in Islamabad:

  1. Stop all uranium enrichment

  2. Dismantle major nuclear enrichment facilities

  3. Recover highly enriched uranium

  4. Agree to a broader peace, security, and de-escalation framework involving regional allies

  5. End financial support for terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis

  6. Completely open the Strait of Hormuz without imposing tolls for passage

Unsurprisingly, Iran declined to accept these terms.

President Trump Initiates Blockade of Strait Of Hormuz

President Trump announced that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of peace talks with Iran in Islamabad over the weekend.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted on social media.

In a series of extensive social media posts, Trump initially described the situation in the Strait…

“Iran pledged to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so.

This caused anxiety, displacement, and suffering for many people and countries worldwide.

They claim to have placed mines in the water, even though their entire Navy and most of their “mine droppers” have been destroyed.

They may have done so, but which ship owner would take the risk?

Iran’s reputation has been greatly dishonored and what remains of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond that.

As promised, they must start the process of reopening this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY QUICKLY! They are violating every law in the book.

I have been briefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner on the Islamabad meeting through the competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan. They are remarkable individuals and constantly express gratitude for my role in preventing a disastrous war with India and saving 30 to 50 million lives. I always appreciate hearing such sentiments – the amount of humanity discussed is unimaginable.

Prior to discussing the outcome of the talks:

“The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted through the night – nearly 20 hours. I could provide extensive details and discuss much that was achieved; however, there is only one matter of importance – IRAN REFUSES TO ABANDON ITS NUCLEAR GOALS!

In many respects, the agreed-upon points are better than continuing our military operations until the end. However, all these points are insignificant compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, challenging, and unpredictable individuals.

My three Representatives, as time passed, unsurprisingly, became very cordial and respectful toward Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that does not matter because they remained resolute on the most important issue and, as I have always maintained, from the very beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER POSSESS A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

Trump noted that the talks were progressing well… until they weren’t…

“So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed upon, but the only pertinent point, NUCLEAR, was not.”“

The US president remains hopeful…

At some point, we will establish a basis of “ALL ALLOWED TO ENTER, ALL ALLOWED TO EXIT,” but Iran has prevented this by simply stating, “There may be a mine out there that only they know about.”

However, threats emerged, with Trump appearing to expand actions to international waters:

THIS IS INTERNATIONAL EXTORTION, and Country Leaders, particularly those of the United States, will not be extorted.

I have also directed our Navy to intercept any vessel in International Waters that has paid a fee to Iran.

No vessel that pays an unlawful toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

We will also begin dismantling the mines laid by the Iranians in the Straits.

Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will face severe consequences!

And the negotiation strategy… Escalate to De-Escalate… how long can Iran withstand without any oil revenue?

Iran knows better than anyone how to RESOLVE this situation that has already devastated their country.

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar are ineffective, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are deceased, all because of their Nuclear ambition.

The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will participate in this Blockade. Iran will not profit from this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.

They want money, and, more importantly, they want Nuclear.

Additionally, and at an appropriate time, we are fully “READY,” and our Military will complete the final blow against Iran!

Trump’s decision follows his re-tweeting of this story from JustTheNews.com, hinting at a potential repetition of his successful Venezuela blockade tactic to disrupt Iran’s already fragile economy and increase diplomatic pressure on China and India by eliminating one of their primary oil sources.

Ironically, the massive USS Gerald Ford carrier that led the Venezuelan blockade is now stationed in the Persian Gulf after a brief hiatus for maintenance and crew recuperation following a tragic fire. It has now joined the USS Abraham Lincoln and other major naval assets.

In essence, Trump could potentially outmaneuver Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, experts have suggested.

On Sunday, the president affirmed his intention to proceed with the blockade.

“The US Navy can easily take complete control over what enters and exits the Strait at this point,” asserted national security expert Rebecca Grant from the Lexington Institute to Just the News.

“I’ve heard about 10 ships have moved in the last 24 hours. One of them was a reflagged Russian tanker, and we know that cargos have gone out to China, to India, and we’ve seen some inbound traffic.

“If Iran becomes uncooperative, then absolutely, the US Navy can establish significant overwater surveillance … and monitor all traffic passing through the Strait, and anyone wishing to proceed past Kharg Island or the narrow section near Oman will have to seek permission from the US Navy,” she added.

Iran’s semi-official media cited “excessive” US demands, while the foreign ministry indicated that it was natural for differences not to be resolved in a single round of negotiations, leaving the door open for further talks.

A month ago, a question arose…

…and now we have a response.

The query is – how will the UAE oil chief respond to a US closure versus an Iranian closure?

China is likely to be displeased as their tankers were relatively unrestricted until now.

Is the US’s ultimate goal to control another strategic chokepoint…

Attempted Boarding of Commercial Ship in Bab el-Mandeb Strait

United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a “sailing vessel” was approached by a small boat carrying 10 to 12 people, some of them heavily armed with automatic weapons, in what appeared to be an attempted boarding.

“The Master deployed a flare, and the skiff veered away and departed to the southeast,” UKMTO stated in an advisory regarding the maritime incident near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another crucial chokepoint that Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have threatened to close in recent weeks.

2 Supertankers Alter Course In Strait After Failed Peace Talks

The prolonged peace discussions in Islamabad between Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Vice President JD Vance, and other officials concluded without an agreement. Nonetheless, the top Iranian negotiator indicated that the opportunity for future talks remains open. Polymarket odds of a peace treaty being signed this month plummeted late Saturday.

According to the latest vessel-tracking data via the Automatic Identification System, provided by Bloomberg, it appears that America has become the world’s emergency gas station.

UAE Oil Chief Warns Against Iran Closing Strait Of Hormuz

On Sunday morning, as vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz remained minimal, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC’s managing director and group CEO, and a key figure in global energy markets, wrote on X: “The Strait of Hormuz does not belong to Iran to restrict or close.”

Al Jaber added, “Any attempt to do so is not a regional matter; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food, and health security of every nation.”

“Establishing such a precedent is unlawful, hazardous, and unacceptable. The world cannot afford it and must

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