Authored by Wolfgang Munchau via UnHerd.com,
The negotiation of the 28-point plan between the White House and the Kremlin is still in progress, far from being finalized. Despite its status as a blueprint, President Trump’s unpredictability adds an element of uncertainty. However, it seems unlikely that he will back out at this stage.
The plan, initially shared on a Telegram channel, is not favorable for Ukraine. Yet, it is not a complete “capitulation,” as some critics suggest. Ukraine may have room for improvement, albeit limited. President Trump’s statement to Zelensky, “You don’t have the cards,” rings true, especially given Ukraine’s weakened position following recent corruption scandals.
US officials have consistently expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to win the war over the past few years. With the US withdrawing support earlier this year, Europe was unable to fill the void. Despite portraying themselves as defenders of the multilateral world order, European countries failed to provide substantial financial assistance to Ukraine. The support dwindled from around €4 billion per month to under €1 billion per month in July and August. The lack of commitment from major European nations to financially support Ukraine reveals the shortcomings of Europe’s strategy.
With America’s withdrawal and Europe’s lack of a backup plan, the situation became dire.
Europe finds itself financially drained and devoid of viable solutions, while President Trump presents a strategic plan. His long-term approach, masked by tough rhetoric against Putin, aims to bring an end to the conflict. The leaked 28-point plan, negotiated by Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, signifies a work in progress rather than a finalized agreement.
One of the plan’s key elements is the territorial agreement, granting Russia control over a portion of Ukraine it does not currently occupy. The deal acknowledges Ukraine’s sovereignty and potential EU membership, with provisions for a limited Ukrainian army and restrictions on certain weapon categories from NATO countries.
However, some aspects of the deal, such as the investment of Russian assets in Ukraine’s reconstruction and the lifting of sanctions, present significant challenges for Europe.
As discussions continue, it remains unclear how Europe will navigate the political implications of the peace deal.
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