Trump’s post-shooting coronation in Milwaukee and China’s Third Plenum

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The US presidential campaign is set to be transformed after Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt at an election rally on Saturday evening.

The former president’s campaign said he was doing well, and he still plans on attending this week’s Republican National Convention, where he will be formally selected as the party’s nominee for the White House race.

But the attempt on Trump’s life adds a whole new dynamic to an already tumultuous US election race and risks deepening the country’s polarisation. Follow our live blog for the latest details on the shooting and its aftermath.

Joe Biden, who spoke to Trump late on Saturday, described the incident as “sick” and a reason “why we have to unite this country”. A Biden campaign official said the president’s re-election campaign was “pausing all outbound communications and working to pull down our television ads as quickly as possible”.

Prior to the shooting, polls were moving in Trump’s favour and as the week unfolds we’ll learn if it has bolstered his campaign. The FT will have comprehensive coverage from the Milwaukee conference floor as the razzamatazz gathers pace.

The FT would also love to hear what you think about the US presidential election. How will it affect you? Click here to submit your comments.

China’s big event this week will be the Third Plenum, running from Monday to Thursday in Beijing. The Chinese Communist party’s central committee generally convenes seven plenums over its five-year term. The third meeting attracts particular international attention because of past pronouncements on economic policy. We’re expecting this one to outline key policy initiatives to revitalise both consumer and business confidence and address the continued large drag from the property sector. You can get up to speed with this analysis from my colleagues in Beijing and Hong Kong.

The big set piece event in the UK this week is the State Opening of Parliament, outlining the new Labour administration’s legislative agenda for its first parliamentary session in power in 14 years. The headline is the axing of hereditary peers from the House of Lords, removing 47 Conservative peers and ending one of the biggest anachronisms in British democracy. But there is plenty more besides, with 30 bills jostling to make the final cut. Read about the runners and riders in this curtain raiser by our parliamentary team.

Sticking with the UK, Monday promises to be a milestone in industrial relations at Amazon as the result of a GMB union ballot of workers at the tech group’s Coventry warehouse is expected to back union recognition — a first for the company in the UK. By chance, it’s also Amazon Prime Day on Tuesday and Wednesday, now the company’s biggest sales event of the year, so a good and bad week for big chief Jeff Bezos.

There will be plenty of company reports as second-quarter earnings season steps up a gear, particularly in the US. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on profit margins, and the stakes are high, according to Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International. “The US Q2 corporate earnings season is going to be a pivotal key for equity sentiment for the remainder of the year,” he writes in a note.

There is also a strong run of economic news, led by the European Central Bank’s rate-setting decision (expected to stick, but possibly with some guidance to the timing of future movements), China GDP data, plus British and Japanese inflation figures. More about all of that below.

One more thing . . . 

It’s summertime in the UK, which means one thing: a strong diet of weather related (usually negative) headlines. Monday is St Swithin’s Day, which folklore says will dictate the British weather for the rest of the summer. If it is wet, then there will be 40 more days of rain, but dry weather will augur 40 days of sunshine. Fingers crossed.

This will not be an immediate concern for me however, because I’m heading off for a few days on an FT Travel assignment to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. It means that next Sunday you will be in the capable hands of David Hindley. You can still message me — I do value reading your priorities and insights — at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Result expected in a ballot of Amazon workers at its Coventry warehouse in an attempt by the GMB union to force the US-based technology business to recognise a union for the first time in the UK

• Superdry shares expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange

• China: Q2 GDP estimate, June retail sales and June industrial production figures

• EU: May industrial production figures

• Turkey: Democracy and National Solidarity Day. Financial markets closed.

• UK: July Rightmove housing index

• Results: BlackRock Q2, Goldman Sachs Q2, Me Group HY, Robert Walters Q2 trading update, TomTom Q2

Tuesday

• Amazon Prime Day shopping event begins, offering millions of deals to Prime members in several countries outside the US. Initially conceived for Prime’s 20th year in 2015, it is now a regular occurrence, outperforming Black Friday sales

• Canada: June consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Germany: Q2 labour market statistics

• UK: Kantar grocery market share figures and price inflation

• US: June retail sales figures plus July NAHB housing market index

• Results: Bank of America Q2, B&M European Value Retail Q1 trading update, Bloomsbury Publishing AGM and FY trading update, Charles Schwab Q2, Experian Q1 trading update, Morgan Stanley Q2, Ocado HY, PNC Financial Services Group Q2, Rio Tinto Q2 operations review, RM HY, State Street Q2, UnitedHealth Group Q2, Wise Q1 trading update

Wednesday

• EU: June Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: June CPI, retail price index and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Also, Land Registry UK House Price Index

• US: June weekly earnings figures, plus June housing starts and industrial production figures. Also, Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book

• Results: Alcoa Q2, ASML Q2, BHP operational review, Crown Castle Q2, Equifax Q2, Johnson & Johnson Q2

Thursday

• Australia: June labour market data

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate decision

• Japan: June trade statistics

• UK: July labour market statistics

• Results: 3i Group Q1 performance update, ABB Q2, AJ Bell Q3 trading update, Anglo American Q2 production report, Discover Financial Services Q2, Domino’s Pizza Q2, Dunelm Q4 trading update, Frasers FY, Infosys Q1, Kier Group trading update, Marsh McLennan Q2, Netflix Q2, Nokia HY, Novartis Q2, Premier Foods Q1 trading update, Snap-On Q2, SSE AGM and Q1 trading update, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q2, United Airlines Q2

Friday

• US Federal Reserve board governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World conference in Dallas, Texas

• EU: Q1 GDP final estimate

• Germany: June PPI inflation rate data

• Japan: June CPI inflation rate data

• UK: June public sector finances, plus Great Britain retail sales figures, GfK Consumer Confidence Survey and insolvency figures

• US: June labour market figures

• Results: American Express Q2, Burberry Q1 trading update, Comerica Q2, Electrolux HY, Finnair HY, Halliburton Q2, Hargreaves Lansdown Q4 trading statement, Schlumberger Q2, Skanska Q2, Travelers Q2

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. 

Monday

• China: Third Plenum begins in Beijing, running until Thursday

• Rwanda: presidential and parliamentary elections

• Syria: parliamentary elections

• US: Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, running until Thursday.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

• France: opening of the new legislature at the National Assembly following this month’s parliamentary elections. Here are the main contenders for prime minister

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts a meeting of the European Political Community, including around 50 European leaders plus the presidents of the European Council, European Commission and European parliament, at Blenheim Palace, just north of Oxford

Friday

• Myanmar: Martyrs’ Day, commemorating the 1947 assassination of Aung San and seven other leaders of the pre-independence interim government

• UK: BBC Proms season opens, featuring conductor Elim Chan in her First Night of the Proms debut, presenting Beethoven’s Fifth Symphony alongside Handel’s Music for the Royal Fireworks and Clara Schumann’s Piano Concerto, featuring soloist Isata Kanneh-Mason. Last Night of the Proms will be held on September 14.

Saturday

• 55th anniversary of Apollo 11 astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin becoming the first people to walk on the moon

• France: International Olympic Committee (IOC) executive board meeting in Paris ahead of the start of the 2024 Games, which begin on July 26. Read more here.

Sunday