Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
To achieve an elusive peace between Ukraine and Russia, it is imperative to delve into the recent history of the conflict and the roles played by Europe and America in it.
Therefore, it is essential for Americans to reexamine some core truths and inquiries before proceeding:
Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine in 2022?
It is a fact that Putin initiated the conflict. Despite Trump’s comments, it is evident that Putin has a history of invading neighboring countries under previous administrations, except during Trump’s tenure, which maintained deterrence.
The primary reason behind Putin’s actions is his belief that he could do so with ease. But why specifically in 2022, after similar actions in 2008 and 2014?
Putin harbors perpetual opportunistic ambitions to reclaim what he perceives as rightfully Russian territory—either through formal annexation or by establishing satellite states. However, he only acts upon these desires when the benefits outweigh the costs.
By February 2022, Putin evidently believed that the advantages of invading Ukraine outweighed the risks.
The U.S. and NATO had demonstrated a lack of deterrence against Russia. Joe Biden, as part of the Obama-Biden administration, had engaged in appeasement towards Putin for nearly eight years. This strategy was founded on several flawed assumptions, including:
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The belief that previous sanctions against Putin for his actions in Georgia and South Ossetia were excessive;
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An expectation that Obama’s charm offensive would sway Putin, as evidenced by the 2012 incident in Seoul where Obama offered flexibility in exchange for political space;
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The assumption that the U.S. could act unilaterally in certain regions without repercussions;
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The misguided notion that Putin could be coerced into adopting democratic values through sanctions and support for dissident groups;
These flawed beliefs were evident in the actions of both Obama and Biden, such as turning a blind eye to Putin’s annexation of Crimea and the Donbas, ignoring his violations of international treaties, and failing to provide adequate support to Ukraine.
What Was the Biden/NATO Strategy to Deter Putin?
It appears that there was no cohesive strategy in place.
Following the missteps of the Obama administration in 2014, there was a realization that their actions had inadvertently emboldened Russia. However, there was a lack of will to rectify the situation under Biden’s leadership.
Subsequently, the measures taken by Biden post-February 24, 2022, seemed to be reactive and naive:
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Slowly integrating Ukraine into NATO;
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Encouraging European countries to arm Ukraine;
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Providing limited military and economic aid to Ukraine;
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Pursuing a strategy of attrition to weaken Russia;
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Attempting to portray Ukraine and its President, Zelensky, as heroic figures despite the devastating costs of the war.
What Were and Are America’s Strategic Interests?
The U.S. has a variety of interests, including avoiding a large-scale conflict with a nuclear power, ending the bloodshed, securing a lasting peace, bolstering European defense against Russian aggression, reallocating military resources to counter China, and disrupting the Russia-China alliance.
What Should Trump Now Do?
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Adopt a more nuanced approach while maintaining military strength;
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Seek to negotiate a return to pre-2022 borders with Putin;
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Recognize the impracticality of reclaiming lost territories in Ukraine;
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Avoid Ukraine’s NATO membership;
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Ensure Ukraine’s defense capabilities without NATO accession;
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Pressure NATO countries to meet defense spending commitments;
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Facilitate U.S. economic engagement in Ukraine;
Despite his bluster, Putin has paid a steep price for minimal gains and is likely seeking an end to the conflict. Trump’s approach should focus on achieving a resolution that benefits all parties involved.
It is crucial to navigate the complexities of the situation and pursue a pragmatic path forward to end the war and restore stability in the region.
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