The recent surge in mortgage rates can be attributed to the news of a new conflict in the Middle East. In the week ending March 6, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose by seven basis points to 5.94%, as reported by Zillow to BW. (A basis point is equivalent to one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
On average, APRs for 30-year fixed mortgages stood at 5.92% in February, marking a decrease of seven basis points from January’s average and a significant drop of 84 basis points from February 2025.
Impact of Iranian Conflict on Mortgage Rates
Beth M. Hammack, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, anticipates a prolonged period of stable rates as the Fed awaits concrete data on how the Iranian conflict may influence inflation.
If inflation surges significantly, some central bankers may advocate for rate hikes. This stance could potentially clash with President Trump’s nominee for the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who is expected to align with the President’s push for rate cuts.
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Employment Data for February in the U.S.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unveiled the February jobs report today, indicating a weaker-than-expected job market. Despite projections of a 50,000 job increase, the report displayed a net loss of 92,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%.
The job losses, primarily in the healthcare sector, were influenced by reduced hiring activity attributed to strike actions. Given that employment growth had been concentrated in this sector, the slowdown has impacted overall job numbers.
Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at BW, notes that while slow growth doesn’t signal a robust economy, it shouldn’t necessarily trigger panic.
Analysts currently anticipate that central bankers will maintain rates at their upcoming meeting later this month, as of Friday afternoon.
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