The article by Austin Alonzo via The Epoch Times highlights how former President Donald Trump is outperforming polling from both 2016 and 2020. With less than two weeks until the general election, Trump is doing significantly better in national and battleground state polling. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by less than a percentage point, a vast improvement from his deficits in both 2016 and 2020.
Recent polls indicate a close race between Trump and Harris, with Trump leading in all seven battleground states crucial for the Electoral College outcome. Pollsters suggest that this improved performance may be due to better capturing voter sentiment and demographic shifts. Trump’s success in these swing states is seen as a significant indicator of a tight race with Harris, potentially giving him an advantage on Election Day.
Experts note that Trump’s polling numbers are much more favorable than in previous elections, indicating a closely contested race. Pollsters have made improvements in their methodologies since 2016 and 2020 to better reflect the demographics and sentiments of voters. These adjustments have led to more accurate polling results, showing a dramatic improvement in Trump’s performance compared to previous elections. In addition, Trump supporters were more inclined to respond to only a portion of the survey questions compared to those supporting the Democratic candidate. If their incomplete responses were included, the accuracy of polls would have significantly improved, according to Levy.
In 2024, Siena implemented changes in how responses were weighted, set strict quotas to ensure diverse demographics were represented in the sample, including partial responses, and made extra efforts to reach out to harder-to-reach respondents. This year’s polling data shows less variability compared to previous elections, indicating that pollsters are learning from past mistakes.
Levy noted, “We are either becoming more precise, or we are once again missing some underlying trend within the electorate.” Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 had eroded public trust in political polling, but Paleologos emphasized the importance of trusting polls from reputable sources with a proven track record of accuracy.
However, in 2024, there is an increase in polls published by organizations with questionable sampling methods. Paleologos warned that these polls include a mix of good, bad, and unreliable data, which may affect the overall accuracy of polling averages.
As the 2024 election unfolds, it is crucial to be cautious of polls from less reputable sources and to rely on data from trusted organizations to make informed decisions.