Which Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine Could Putin Find Acceptable?
Written by Andrew Korybko for Substack,
Putin might potentially consider the idea of NATO resuming its current support for Ukraine (including arms, intelligence, logistics, etc.) in the event of another conflict as not crossing Russia’s red lines. However, he is unlikely to compromise on the presence of Western troops in Ukraine once the current conflict has ended.
Claims made by Steve Witkoff suggest that Putin may have agreed to the US offering Ukraine “Article 5-like protection” during the Anchorage Summit, a statement that was later reiterated by Trump during his White House Summit with Zelensky and several European leaders. This raises questions about what form this protection could take if true. Article 5 does not obligate allies to send troops in the event of an attack, but rather each member must take action they deem necessary, which could include the use of armed forces.
It is possible that Putin agreed to the idea of resuming “Article 5-like protection” in the event of another conflict, as long as it does not involve Western troops in Ukraine. While Russia opposes Ukraine’s remilitarization post-conflict, it may be open to a compromise in exchange for other concessions. However, Russia remains steadfast in rejecting the deployment of NATO military contingents in Ukraine after the conflict ends, as this goes against its goal of preventing NATO expansion in the region.
Potential compromises could involve non-Western peacekeepers in Ukraine, particularly in a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region. Russia would prefer no foreign peacekeepers at all, as the presence of any foreign military forces could lead to provocations by Ukraine. In terms of acceptable Western security guarantees to Ukraine from Russia’s perspective, the resumption of support in case of conflict without peacekeepers ranks highest, followed by support with non-Western peacekeepers, and finally support with Western troops west of the Dnieper and non-Western troops in a demilitarized zone.
The scope of Ukraine’s demilitarization and the extent of Western security guarantees post-conflict are crucial for preventing Ukraine from being used as a launchpad for Western aggression. Russia is unlikely to compromise on the issue of Western troops in Ukraine, but may be more flexible on other matters. It is important for all parties involved to find a solution that satisfies everyone’s interests.