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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
President-elect Donald Trump considers “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. His campaign proposals included imposing a 60% duty on Chinese goods and a 20% duty on European goods. Despite the expectation of reduced trade due to higher tariffs, Maersk shareholders remain optimistic.
The recent 15% increase in Maersk’s stock suggests confidence that Trump’s tariffs may not completely disrupt the shipping market in the short term. The US plays a significant but not dominant role in global trade, accounting for 5% of global seaborne imports by weight according to Clarksons. Bilateral trade between the US and China represents 1.4% of global seaborne goods transport.
Initial tariffs could lead to a surge in US imports as importers rush to stockpile goods before the duties take effect. Consumers may accept higher prices initially, while companies may settle for lower margins. If certain goods become too expensive, other imports could fill the gap, potentially benefiting European companies in the US market.
Despite potential short-term shipping demand spikes from stockpiling and disruptions in the Red Sea, the industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and risks to global growth. Trump’s past tariff measures had a minimal impact on global seaborne trade, but escalating trade wars could negatively affect global GDP and shipping demand in the long run.
Investors are uncertain about the exact impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on global trade, but they believe shipping companies like Maersk can adapt to any disruptions.
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