Exploring the “labor over inflation” model
Current market expectations are leaning towards potential rate cuts, despite recent improvements in inflation data, cooling rent growth, and falling oil prices. The Federal Reserve has adjusted its inflation targets in response to the trade war and the potential shortages of goods if agreements are not reached.
A key point to watch is whether Powell will consider additional rate cuts if the labor market shows signs of strain due to the ongoing trade conflict. The latest jobs report may not fully capture the impact of recent events, and prolonged trade tensions could lead to increased labor market pressures, exacerbated by government job reductions and budget cuts.
If the Fed signals readiness to intervene in case of rising jobless claims, along with insights from Fed presidents engaging with companies on workforce adjustments, it could set the stage for a more dovish Fed stance on rate cuts. However, a focus on preventing sustained inflation from tariffs or shortages may have negative implications for the bond market.
Diverging Views Among Fed Presidents
This week’s meeting is expected to show a shift in views among Federal Reserve presidents away from Powell’s stance. If Powell leans towards a more hawkish approach, the Q&A session will be crucial in understanding if other Fed presidents prioritize the labor market over inflation concerns related to tariffs.
Fed President Waller and Fed President Bowman have both expressed willingness to adopt aggressive rate cuts if the labor market weakens, signaling a shift in focus. Continued divergence on this issue could lead to internal conflicts within the Fed, complicating Powell’s role if the labor market faces challenges.
Looking Ahead
While no immediate actions are expected in this meeting, the Federal Reserve is entering a pivotal two-year period. With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, challenges lie ahead as potential labor market weaknesses could strain relationships within the Fed, with President Trump, and the public scrutinizing Powell’s leadership if job growth falters.
The emergence of a shadow Fed president in the future could add another layer of complexity. It is important to closely monitor not only the Fed’s actions but also their statements and responses in press briefings for insights into future developments.