Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)
George Orwell identified the issue of below-replacement birth rates almost eight decades ago. In a brief book penned for the Britain in Pictures series in 1947, just as Britain was transitioning from wartime hardships to an uncertain postwar era, Orwell observed a decline in birth rates despite a temporary increase during the war years. He warned that the population would not only decrease but would also be predominantly composed of middle-aged individuals if corrective measures were not taken within a decade or two—the consequences of which would be irreversible.
Orwell’s concerns were not realized as postwar birth rates saw an increase in Britain and parts of Europe, though not as dramatically as in the United States where the baby boom peaked in 1957 and declined after the introduction of the birth control pill in 1962.
The fertility rate in the United States, which peaked above 3.5, dropped to 1.74 in 1976, similar to the rate in 2025. Subsequently, fertility rates fluctuated, occasionally reaching the replacement rate of 2.1 in the high-immigration 1990s through the Great Recession of 2007. The latest rate showed a slight increase from the levels observed during the COVID-19-affected period of 2020–24, presenting a dilemma akin to the one Orwell cautioned against.
The declining birth rates are not unique to the United States. This trend is global, with Europe experiencing fertility rates well below replacement levels for years, leading to a projected 20 percent decline in under-70 populations in the next decade. This decline is not limited to economically stagnant countries like Britain and France, where immigrant births contribute significantly, but also affects rapidly growing nations like Poland with low immigration rates.
Since 2000, birth rates in most of Latin America have fallen below replacement levels, primarily due to fewer children being born to lower-income mothers, such as Hispanic women in the United States.
Despite the abolition of China’s one-child policy in 2015, the country’s fertility rate plummeted to 0.9 in 2025. If current birth rates persist, China’s population is projected to decrease by more than half, from 1.4 billion to 625 million. In East Asia, birth rates have dropped to 0.8 in Taiwan and Thailand, and even lower in South Korea.
South Koreans have demonstrated a commitment to preserving their culture and independence, yet they face the risk of extinction with current birth rates resulting in every 100 South Koreans today having only six great-grandchildren.
The underlying factors driving this global phenomenon are complex. In the United States, it is evident that childbearing has become increasingly associated with political ideologies.
As noted by the Institute for Family Studies, the fertility rate of American conservatives and progressives stood at 2.7 in 1980, above replacement level. By the 2020s, conservatives maintained a rate of around 2.4, still above replacement level, while progressives saw their rate decline to 1.8, below replacement level, aligning with patterns observed in economically developed countries.
The widening gap in political and cultural attitudes between young men and women, both on and off campuses, has contributed to declining marriage and premarital sex rates, exacerbating the partisan divide in fertility rates.
These trends are reflected in the Census Bureau’s 2026 state population estimates, with a majority of the national population growth occurring in conservative states. As children often adopt their parents’ political views, this partisan fertility gap is expected to lead to a more conservative United States and developed world.
This shift towards conservatism, a trend that Orwell, a socialist, might have deemed more perilous than acknowledged, underscores the profound impact of below-replacement birth rates on societies worldwide.
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