Back in the day, we warned our subscribers about an upcoming negative payrolls revision, and now we’ve been proven right once again. This time, a staggering 911K payrolls for the period April 2024-March 2025 have been revised away, as reported by the BLS. The biggest revisions were seen in the Leisure and Hospitality, Professional and Business services, and Retail and Wholesale trade sectors.
The preliminary estimate of the national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This marks a record negative revision, with the final benchmark revision set to be issued in February 2026. The revisions are based on comprehensive employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Various errors, such as response error and nonresponse error, have contributed to the overestimation of employment growth, leading to this significant revision. The individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, due to greater statistical sampling error at more detailed levels.
Surprisingly, after last year’s substantial negative revision, virtually nobody expected this year’s number to be higher. Yet, it turned out to be the biggest negative revision on record, catching many off guard.
With the White House preparing a critical report on the statistics agency and the ongoing revisions painting a grim picture of the job market, it’s clear that the Biden administration’s economic policies are under scrutiny. The Fed’s delay in cutting rates earlier in the year, along with the revelation of 2 million revised jobs from the last 3 years, further adds to the complexities of the situation.
Despite the revisions, one thing remains unchanged – the massive debt accumulated during this period, burdening future generations with financial woes. To stay informed and ahead of such developments, consider subscribing to our services.