According to UBS consumer analyst Michael Lasser, the rise in e-commerce penetration could potentially lead to the closure of 40,000 U.S. retail stores by 2030 if it reaches as high as 27%, up from the current 22%.
This warning comes as over 10,000 stores have already closed since late 2023, highlighting the increasing pressure on brick-and-mortar retail spaces across the country.
Lasser predicts that e-commerce penetration rates in the U.S. will exceed 27% by the end of the decade, resulting in closures primarily in clothing, consumer electronics, home furnishings, office supplies, and sporting goods.
The internet and e-commerce have significantly impacted retail stores in recent years, with a projected future decline in the consumer economy due to a lack of new consumer segments.
Despite these closures, retail stores will remain essential in retail ecosystems, especially big-box retailers that have driven much of the retail footprint growth.
The anticipated loss of 40,000 retail stores by 2030 will have significant implications for the labor market and commercial real estate, accelerating the decline of small retail businesses.
Professional subscribers can access the full U.S. Retail note on our Marketdesk.ai portal.