Bitcoin’s supply is becoming scarcer as long-term holders continue to hold onto their coins, keeping them out of circulation. River Financial data reveals that 81% of the circulating BTC has not been touched for at least six months, reducing the number of coins available for active trading.
Despite this supply constraint, Bitcoin has not managed to surpass $87K, dropping below $84K and entering a consolidation phase.
According to River Financial, approximately 16.3 million BTC has been dormant for over six months, leaving only around 3.7 million BTC actively circulating out of a total of 19.7 million coins. This indicates that most Bitcoin holders are choosing to hold onto their coins rather than selling or transferring them between wallets and exchanges. This trend has become more evident as Bitcoin has rebounded by about 50% from its June lows and surpassed $87,000.
The decrease in active supply is largely attributed to long-term accumulation. River Financial’s data shows that long-term holders have acquired over 3 million BTC since 2020. Simultaneously, the movement of older coins has slowed significantly, with only around 300,000 BTC from older wallets being transferred in the first half of 2026, suggesting a decrease in long-held coins re-entering circulation.
This limited supply of coins poses challenges for buyers and sellers on exchanges and trading platforms. Additionally, institutional investors are increasing their holdings through spot Bitcoin ETFs, with net inflows of $134.51 million and total weekly inflows reaching nearly $2.6 billion.
Retail investors have also shown a shift in behavior, with retail holders selling a net of 140,000 BTC in the first half of 2026 but buying back over 107,000 BTC in Q3. Mid-sized “dolphin” wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have also been accumulating more BTC since mid-July, further reducing the available supply.
Whale activity in the market has been intense, with large buy and sell orders creating a battleground around the $85K – $87K range. Sell orders totaling around $37 million have been placed between $85,122 and $87,000, while buy orders totaling $21.1 million are placed between $82,000 and $83,500. This establishes the $82K – $83K area as a crucial support zone and the $85K – $87K range as a significant selling area.
Overall, the tightening supply dynamics and shifting investor behavior are shaping the Bitcoin market, influencing price movements and creating opportunities for both buyers and sellers.